Oklahoma vs. Alabama Spread Prediction

Oklahoma vs. Alabama, 12/29/18 Semi-Final Playoffs Predictions & Odds

The Alabama Crimson Tide are laying 13.5 points to the Oklahoma Sooners in tonight’s Capital One Orange Bowl. Given how explosive Oklahoma is offensively, are the Sooners a good bet to at least cover the spread even if they don’t move on to the national championship game?

Game Snapshot

253 Oklahoma Sooners vs. 254 Alabama Crimson Tide

8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, December 29, 2018

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Crimson Tide are 13.5-point favorites to beat the Crimson Tide. The total, meanwhile, sits at 78.5 points. As of this writing, 59% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Sooners.

Oklahoma Sooners

The Athletic's Dane Brugler believes Oklahoma redshirt junior QB Kyler Murray would be a top-50 overall pick if he committed to football. Brugler gets bolder by saying there is a "legitimate chance" that Murray would be a first-round selection if he committed to the NFL. Murray (5'10/195) isn't conventional, especially at his size, but Brugler believes the NFL is more open to non-traditional quarterbacks with the early successes of Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson. NFL teams have also paid the price after passing on shorter quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, so Murray may go higher than some believe (if he commits to the NFL). Murray hasn't announced his future plans regarding the NFL, but he is seeking a draft grade from the College Advisory Board.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama junior LB Terrell Lewis (right knee) said Thursday that he is "most likely out" for Saturday's Orange Bowl matchup with No. 4 Oklahoma. Lewis, who tore the ACL in his right knee in July, returned to practice in late November. Alabama HC Nick Saban had already ruled out the possibility of a return, and the junior linebacker is exercising caution with regards to his rehab. "It’s a critical injury and you don’t want to rush it too soon and stuff like that because they know I rehab kinda fast and I keep wanting to move on to the next step so they put it on me like ‘Man, you can slow down and rest it a little bit and get stronger,’" Lewis said Thursday.

Betting Trends

Oklahoma

The over is 13-3 in the Sooners’ last 16 games overall.

Alabama

The over is 5-0 in the Crimson Tide’s last five games against the Big 12.

Prediction

Oklahoma is too good offensively not to hang with Alabama for a half or so, but the Sooners horrendous defense will doom them tonight. Murray has been able to match points with nearly every defense in the nation but he faces a different beast tonight. Not only does Alabama have the best collection of talent defensively, the Tide are also bolstered by a coaching staff that will make adjustments quickly. Oklahoma hung with Clemson in the playoff semi-final a few years ago before the wheels fell off in the second half. Last year’s matchup with Georgia was closer than that loss to Clemson but the Bulldogs still made key adjustments in the second half to knock off OU.

Capital One Orange Bowl Prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5

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