Texas Bowl Prediction

Baylor Bears vs. Vanderbilt Commodores, 12/27/18 Texas Bowl Predictions

The Vanderbilt Commodores are laying points in Thursday night’s matchup with the Baylor Bears in the Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl at 9:00 p.m. ET. Can bettors trust the Commodores to cash as a favorite?

Game Snapshot

240 Baylor Bears vs. 239 Vanderbilt Commodores

9:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, December 27, 2018

NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Commodores are 4-point favorites to beat the Bears. The total, meanwhile, sits at 56 points. As of this writing, 63% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Commodores.

Baylor Bears

Baylor sophomore QB Charlie Brewer went 22-of-30 for 308 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in Saturday's 35-24 victory over Texas Tech. Brewer also ran for a fourth score. He was outstanding against an improved Tech defense, topping 300 passing yards for the first time since late September against Oklahoma. This was his first three-TD passing day since the week before that against Kansas. The Bears improve to 6-6 and clinch Matt Rhule's first bowl trip as Baylor's coach with the win.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Vanderbilt senior QB Kyle Shurmur completed 31-of-35 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday's 38-13 win over Tennessee. The pressure was on Shurmur (6'4/225) to get Vanderbilt bowl eligible, and boy did he deliver. The senior quarterback set a new career high in completion percentage (88%), but averaging more than 10 yards per attempt on that many drop backs is what was so impressive. For Shurmur, bowl eligibility gives him the great chance to pass Jay Cutler for the most career passing yards in Vandy history, but it also gives Shurmur one last chance to put out good game film for NFL scouts. We are still months away from the NFL Draft, but Shurmur is on his way to becoming a potential late round pick.

Betting Trends

Baylor

The under is 4-0 in the Bears’ last four games overall but the over is 20-8 in their last 28 non-conference games.

Vanderbilt

The over is 4-0 in the Commodores’ last four bowl games but he under is 4-1 in the Commodores’ last five games overall.

Prediction

Baylor is 34th in total offense, 22nd in passing yards, 80th in rushing and 72nd in points scored. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is 69th in total yards offensively, 56th in passing yards, 84th in rushing and 76th in points scored. The Bears are 77th in total yards allowed, 79th in passing yards allowed, 79th in rushing yards allowed, and 87th in points allowed. The Commodores are 83rd in total yards allowed, 71st in passing yards allowed, 88th in rushing yards allowed and 48th in points allowed. My point in listing all of those numbers to say this: The matchup is close, so why lay four points with Vandy? In a game that could go either way, I’d rather take the points in a game at a neutral site.

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl Prediction: Baylor Bears +4

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