New Orleans Bowl Prediction
Will the Troy Trojans cover as a touchdown-sized favorite Saturday afternoon when they take on the North Texas Mean Green in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at 1:00 p.m. ET?
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Troy. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Trojans are now 7-point favorites to beat the Mean Green, who opened as a 6-point underdog. As for the total, the number currently sits at 62.5 points after hitting the board at 61.5.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: Troy. As of this writing, the Trojans are receiving 69% of the betting tickets and 55% of the spread money to cover the spread.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: The Trojans are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games when playing an opponent with a winning record. That said, they're just 2-5 against the number in its last seven games following an ATS win and are 1-5 at the betting window in their last six non-conference games.
On the other side, the Mean Green have covered in four of their last five games overall, are 7-1 against the number in their last eight non-conference games and are 10-3 at the betting window in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
WHO WE LIKE: Troy. We know North Texas can score. The Mean Green are averaging nearly 36 points per game, which ranks 20th in the nation. They're also 19th in total yards, 21st in passing yards per game, and 53rd in rushing yards per game, gaining 176.2 per contest.
That said, North Texas plays zero defense. The Mean Green are surrendering 33.8 points per game, are getting gashed on the ground while allowing 208.1 RPG, and gashed overall (431.2 yards per game).
Now compare that with Troy. The Trojans still average 30 points per game so they're no stiffs on offense but unlike the Mean Green, they do play defense. They're 11th in the nation in points allowed, 27th in total yards and 15th against the run. I'll take the better defense and lay the points.
NEW ORLEANS BOWL PREDICTION: TROY TROJANS -7