MWC Championship Prediction
Is No. 19 Boise State giving up too many points at home when the Broncos play host to Hawaii today at 4PM ET in the Mountain Western Conference Championship?
Game Snapshot & Odds
115 Hawaii vs. 116 Boise State
Saturday, December 7, 2019
4PM ET – Albertsons Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Boise State is favored at home, as the Broncos are getting odds of -14 points against Hawaii. The over/under total for the game is listed at 64.5 points. The public betting currently has 74 percent going on Boise State as the home favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Broncos have won five straight
Boise State has won five straight coming into this game following a 31-24 victory at Colorado State last weekend. The Broncos have had three of their last five wins come by 10 points or less. Boise State is now 11-1 on the season, 8-0 in the MWC, 6-5-1 against the spread and 6-6 with the over/under total.
The Broncos have been a solid balance of offense and defense this year. The D is giving up just 21.5 points and 348.9 yards per game. Offensively, Boise State is putting up 37.3 points and 448 yards per contest. Boise has been winning lately without starting QB Hank Bachmeier. He has thrown or 1,760 yards and nine scores this year but is doubtful to play this afternoon with a shoulder injury. Jaylon Henderson has taken over in recent weeks and has thrown for 820 yards and nine touchdowns this year. George Holani is the team’s top rusher with 912 yards and seven touchdowns, while John Hightower has 45 catches for 859 yards and seven scores. Curtis Weaver is leading the impressive defense with 47 tackles and 13.5 sacks.
Hawaii playing with some momentum
Hawaii suffered a 59-37 loss at Boise State back on Oct. 12, but the Warriors come into this game riding a four-game win streak following a 52-31 win at home over Army last weekend. Hawaii is 9-4 on the season, 5-3 in the MWC, 7-6 against the spread and 8-5 with the over.
Like usual, the Warriors have been a strong offensive team that is averaging 35.4 points and 480.8 yards per game. The issue for Hawaii is defense, as the Warriors are giving up 31.8 points and 430.8 yards per contest. Cole McDonald has led the team this year with 3,401 passing yards and 29 touchdowns while also rushing for 404 yards and six scores. Cedric Byrd leads a talented receiving group with 91 catches for 1,049 yards and 10 touchdowns. Two others have over 900 yards. Miles Reed is the top rusher with 804 yards and seven touchdowns.
College Football Betting Trends
The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
The Warriors are just 5-11-1 against the spread in their last 17 road games and 20-44-1 ATS in their last 65 conference games.
Boise State already owns the 59-37 win over Hawaii this season and the Broncos have won and covered in six straight against the Warriors. Hawaii has a pretty simple history of being really strong offensively, but usually struggling on the road. Boise State will have the weather and the crowd on its size. The Warriors aren’t going to do well in the colder Idaho temps and they will struggle to get defensive stops no matter who is at QB. Boise’s offense has been doing just fine in recent weeks despite the injury to Bachmeier. I like Boise to cover this spread just fine.
MWC Championship Prediction: Boise State -14