MWC Championship Total Pick
Can No. 19 Boise State slow down the Hawaii offense when the two meet up on Saturday in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game at 4PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
115 Hawaii vs. 116 Boise State
Saturday, December 7, 2019
4PM ET – Albertsons Stadium
Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new NCAAF Odds & Betting Page.
Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Boise State is favored at home, as the Broncos are getting odds of -13.5 points against Hawaii. The over/under total for the game is listed at 64.5 points. The public betting currently has 76 percent going on Boise State as the home favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Hawaii wins four straight
Hawaii suffered a 59-37 loss at Boise State back on Oct. 12, but the Warriors come into this game riding a four-game win streak following a 52-31 win at home over Army last weekend. Hawaii is 9-4 on the season, 5-3 in the MWC, 7-6 against the spread and 8-5 with the over.
Like usual, the Warriors have been a strong offensive team that is averaging 35.4 points and 480.8 yards per game. The issue for Hawaii is defense, as the Warriors are giving up 31.8 points and 430.8 yards per contest. Cole McDonald has led the team this year with 3,401 passing yards and 29 touchdowns while also rushing for 404 yards and six scores. Cedric Byrd leads a talented receiving group with 91 catches for 1,049 yards and 10 touchdowns. Two others have over 900 yards. Miles Reed is the top rusher with 804 yards and seven touchdowns.
Broncos finding ways to win
Boise State has won five straight coming into this game following a 31-24 victory at Colorado State last weekend. The Broncos have had three of their last five wins come by 10 points or less. Boise State is now 11-1 on the season, 8-0 in the MWC, 6-5-1 against the spread and 6-6 with the over/under total.
The Broncos have been a solid balance of offense and defense this year. The D is giving up just 21.5 points and 348.9 yards per game. Offensively, Boise State is putting up 37.3 points and 448 yards per contest. Boise has been winning lately without starting QB Hank Bachmeier. He has thrown or 1,760 yards and nine scores this year but is doubtful to play this weekend with a shoulder injury. Jaylon Henderson has taken over in recent weeks and has thrown for 820 yards and nine touchdowns this year. George Holani is the team’s top rusher with 912 yards and seven touchdowns, while John Hightower has 45 catches for 859 yards and seven scores. Curtis Weaver is leading the impressive defense with 47 tackles and 13.5 sacks.
College Football Betting Trends
The Warriors are 7-2 with the over in their last nine games in December and 8-2 with the over in their last 10 games as an underdog.
The Broncos have hit the under in nine of their last 12 conference games and in 24 of their last 33 home games.
These two have hit the over in three of their last four meetings, including the meeting this season in which 96 points were scored. The two combined for nearly 1,000 total yards and Boise State put up 518 and Hawaii had 438. The Warriors were able to succeed offensively in ways that many others weren’t against this Boise defense. The problem is, the Warriors couldn’t stop Boise. That has been a common problem for Hawaii in road games over the years. I can see more of the same problems for Hawaii this weekend. Boise hasn’t missed a beat with its backup QB in and I see the Broncos pushing for another high total. Hawaii is going to likely find some points again as they tend to do, but don’t expect many defensive stops from the Warriors.
MWC Championship Prediction: Hawaii/Boise State Over 64.5