Mountain West Title Game Prediction
One week after beating Boise State, will Fresno State cover as a sizable underdog in the Mountain West Championship Game tonight at 7:45 p.m. ET?
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Boise State. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Broncos are 9-point home favorites to beat the Bulldogs, who opened as 9.5-point underdogs. The total, meanwhile, hit the board at 48 before jumping to 51.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: Fresno State. As of Saturday morning, just over 60% of the betting tickets were on the Bulldogs to cover the spread as an underodg.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: Boise State. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two teams but the Bulldogs are 4-12 against the number in their last 16 games versus the Broncos. Fresno State has also failed to cash in six of its last eight trips to Boise.
WHO WE LIKE: Fresno State. Boise State had nothing to play for last week and clearly went with a vanilla game plan given that this is the game both teams want to win. That said, that same logic can be applied to the Bulldogs, right? It's not as if Fresno State threw the kitchen sink at Boise a week ago with the Mountain West title on the line tonight.
I don't understand while the Bulldogs are dogs (no pun intended) by nearly double-digits. Fresno is a near-perfect 5-0-1 against the spread in its last six road games, is 12-3-1 against the number in its last 16 games played on fieldturf and is 15-5-1 at the betting window its last 21 conference games. The Bulldogs have been a great bet all season and I don't see that changing tonight.
Will the Bulldogs win? Maybe not. It's difficult to win on that blue turf in Boise. But nearly 10 points in a title game? I'll take the dog that plays excellent defense (17.2 points per game).
MOUNTAIN WEST CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTION: FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS +9