AAC Championship Game Prediction

AAC Championship Predictions: Will Memphis cover vs. UCF? 12/2/17

Will the Memphis Tigers at least cover the point spread Saturday against Central Florida when the conference rivals play in the American Athletic Championship Game at 12:00 p.m. ET?

ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Central Florida. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Knights are 7-point favorites to beat the Tigers, who opened as 7.5-point underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 81, was bet all the way up to 83 at one point during the week, and is now back down to 81.

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THE PUBLIC LIKES: Central Florida. As of Saturday, just under 60% of the betting tickets were on the Knights to cover the point spread.

HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: Central Florida and the under. The home team is a perfect 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the Tigers are winless at the betting window in their last five road games versus the Knights. The under is also 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

WHO WE LIKE: Memphis. Don't let that 40-13 beat-down that Central Florida handed Memphis during the regular season dissuade you from backing the Tigers. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson had his worst game of the season that day, tossing one touchdown and four interceptions. For the season, Ferguson threw 32 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions, so his performance against the Knights in the first meeting was clearly an aberration.

Since that loss to UCF, Memphis has rattled off seven straight wins while averaging 53.6 points per contest. The Knights, meanwhile, are still unbeaten on the season but they've actually been out-gained in two of their last three wins. If the Tigers can protect the ball, they should put up enough points to hang with UCF and cover as a touchdown-sized underdog. Make sure to shop around because you should get the hook.

 

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: MEMPHIS TIGERS +7 

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