Alabama vs. Florida Pick
The Alabama Crimson Tide are a massive favorite against Florida in the SEC title game. Will 'Bama cover?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Crimson Tide are now 24-point favorites versus the Gators after opening as a 21.5-point favorite when the line was first posted. As for the total, the number opened at 40 and has been bet up to 41.
The Crimson Tide will carry a perfect 12-0 record into this year's SEC title game after beating Auburn 30-12 in the Iron Bowl last Saturday. The Tide finished a perfect 8-0 in conference play and despite failing to cover in back-to-back games against Chattanooga and Auburn, Nick Saban's team was also 8-4 at the betting window. In their 12 games this season, the under cashed in seven of those games.
The Gators limp into the SEC Championship Game this season after being blown out 31-13 by in-state rival Florida State last Saturday night in Tallahassee. They did beat South Carolina and LSU in back-to-back games before losing to the Seminoles, but the loss to FSU was eye-opening. The Gators finished the regular season with an 8-3 record and 6-2 in conference play, but went just 4-6-1 against the spread in 2016. In their 11 games, the under cashed in eight contests.
OUR PREDICTION: This feels like too many points to be laying in a conference championship game, even with Florida's massive issues on offense. Alabama hasn't been as efficient over its last three games on offense as it was earlier in the year and Florida maintains an excellent defense despite some injury questions. Saban also won't run the score up against his former offensive coordinator Jim McElwain, who was employed by Saban at Alabama from 2008 through 2011 before landing the Colorado State head job. This game isn't going to be pretty, but even a 20-point win for Bama doesn't cover the spread.
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PICK: FLORIDA GATORS +24