Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction

Iron Bowl Auburn vs. Alabama College Football Predictions 11/26/16

Is Alabama laying too many points in the Iron Bowl today against Auburn? Kickoff is set for 3:30PM ET.

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Crimson Tide is an 18-point home favorite versus the Tigers after opening as a 20-point favorite earlier in the week. As for the total, the number hit the board at 47.5 and has been bet down slightly to 47.

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AUBURN KEY TRENDS: The Tigers have covered in four of their last five road games and in nine of their last 12 overall. They're also 5-1 against the spread in their lat six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game, are 7-1 at the betting window in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game, and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

ALABAMA KEY TRENDS: The Crimson Tide has seemingly been covering for bettors in every scenario. First and foremost, they're 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall and are a perfect 5-0 against the number in their last five conference games. But they're also 6-2 at the betting window in their last eight home games, are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games coming off a failed cover, and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in November as well.

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OUR PREDICTION: The Tigers are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Crimson Tide but this feels like too many points. Auburn has the No. 5 rushing offense in the nation and while Alabama is stout against the run, Gus Malzhan isn't going to get away from his game plan. The Tigers defense is also improved from a year ago, holding opponents to 334.5 yards per game (19th in the country), 216.8 passing yards per game (52nd), 117.7 rushing yards per game (16th), and 14.3 points per game (6th). This game will be tight throughout and while Alabama may pull away in the fourth quarter, Auburn should cover.

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +18

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