Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction

College Football: Oregon vs. Oregon State Civil War Predictions 11/26/16

Is Oregon State a good bet to cover against Oregon in today's Civil War at 4:00PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Beavers are 3-point home underdogs versus the Ducks while the over/under currently sits at 71.5 points. Oregon enters play with a 4-7 record and Oregon State is 3-8, so neither team has a bowl berth on the line today. Pride is the only thing at stake in this one.

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OREGON KEY TRENDS: Oregon is 23-8-1 against the spread in its last 32 road games, which includes an outright upset over Utah last Saturday as an 11-point dog. That said, the Ducks are still 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 games overall, are 2-7 against the number in their last nine conference games, and have failed to cover in five of their last seven games against a team with a  losing record.

OREGON STATE KEY TRENDS: The Beavers are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five home games, are 6-1 against the number in their last seven games overall, and are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven conference games. They've also covered in four of their last five games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

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OUR PREDICTION: This line feels like a trap, with public bettors jumping at the chance to take the Ducks after their big win versus Utah last Saturday. That said, Oregon State has greatly improved over the last three weeks. For example, the Beavers' yards per pass attempt is 6.0 on the season, but .2 over their last three games. Their opponent YPA has gone down, from a 6.4 season average to 5.5 over their last three games and their yards per play average has gone up as well (5.3 season, 5.8 L3). You can make the argument, despite Oregon's win over Utah last week, that Oregon State has been the better team over the last three weeks. Take the points, but you might not need them.




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