Florida vs. Florida State Pick

Will Florida vs. Florida State be a defensive struggle? 11/26/16

Will the under cash when in-state rivals Florida and Florida State battle at 8:00PM ET on Saturday?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Seminoles are now 7.5-point home favorites versus the Gators after opening as a 5-point favorite. As for the total, the number opened at 45 before jumping to 45.5 at the majority of sports books.

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The Gators are coming off back-to-back wins and are now 8-2 on the year. Their latest victory came as a 14-point underdog at Florida State in which the Gators' defense was outstanding in the red zone and came up with a goal-line stand to help secure the victory. Even though Florida covered easily in that game, the Gators are still just 4-5-1 against the spread this season and are 2-3 ATS on the road.

The Seminoles have won three straight games since losing a heartbreaker to Clemson four weeks ago. Their latest victory came in a 45-14 win at Syracuse in which Florida State covered as a 23-point road favorite. Florida State has now covered in three of its last four games, with its lone failed cover coming at N.C. State when the Seminoles won 24-20 but did cover as a 6.5-point favorite.

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OUR PREDICTION: The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams in Tallahassee and is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall. The under has also cashed in five of the Seminoles' last seven games overall and is 8-1 in their last nine games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. On the other side, the under is 4-0 in the Gators' last four games overall, is 4-0 in their last four road games and is 17-4 in their last 21 games versus the ACC. With Florida's penchant for playing excellent defense but lackluster offense, the under should cash in yet another one of its games on Saturday.

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PICK: FLORIDA/FLORIDA STATE UNDER 45.5

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