Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Mississippi State is favored at home, as the Bulldogs are getting odds of -14.5 points against the Rebels. The over/under total for the contest has been set at 65 points. The road team has won the last two meetings in this series, covering the spread in both wins. The public is currently putting 58 percent of the wagers on Ole Miss on the road in this game. Tonight’s game takes place from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi and will air live on ESPN.
Mississippi State is 8-3 on the season after a 28-21 win at Arkansas last week. The Bulldogs are 4-3 in the SEC and 7-4 against the spread. However, they have covered in just one of their last three games. Mississippi State has been a pretty good defensive team this year, allowing just 19.5 points and 297.3 yards per contest. When it comes to offense, the Bulldogs are putting up 32.5 points and 412.5 yards per contest. Their run game is very impactful, as Aeris Williams has run for 944 yards and five scores while QB Nick Fitzgerald has run for 968 yards and 14 touchdowns. Fitzgerald has also thrown for 1,770 yards and 15 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
Ole Miss is coming off a 31-23 loss to Texas A&M this past weekend to fall to 5-6 on the season and 2-5 in the SEC. The Rebels are just 3-7-1 against the spread, but they have covered in two of their last three games. Ole Miss has struggled on defense this year, allowing 35.2 points and 455.7 yards per game. Their run defense is giving up 240.9 yards per game on the ground. Offensively, Ole Miss is putting up 33 points and 472.1 yards per contest. The team lost QB Shea Patterson for the season to a knee injury and now Jordan Ta’amu is in. He has thrown for 1,435 yards and nine touchdowns in limited action. Jordan Wilkins has run for 901 yards and seven touchdowns while A.J. Brown has 69 catches for 1,085 yards and 10 touchdowns.
On paper Mississippi State should be able to handle its business tonight and the trends seem to agree. The Bulldogs are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. Ole Miss is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Look for the Bulldogs to take advantage of their home crowd and roll past their rival.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: MISSISSIPPI STATE -14.5