Ole Miss vs. Miss State Spread Pick

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 11/22/18 Week 13 Predictions

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are laying double digits on Thanksgiving night to rival Ole Miss at 7:30 p.m. ET. Will the Rebels cover the spread in this rivalry matchup?

Game Snapshot

113 Mississippi State Bulldogs at 114 Ole Miss Rebels

7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 22, 2018

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Bulldogs are 12.5-point favorites to beat the Rebels. The total, meanwhile, sits at 61.5 points. As of this writing, 55% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Rebels.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State redshirt senior QB Nick Fitzgerald completed 9-of-14 passes for 127 yards and four touchdowns and ran for 85 yards with a score in a 52-6 rout of Arkansas on Saturday. Fitzgerald bounced back very nicely after his struggles against Alabama, and while it's important to note how much worse Arkansas is than Alabama, it was still a strong effort in the quarterback's final home game. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound quarterback avoided mistakes, delivered the football on time, and showed off his impressive power running at the same time. If we would have seen this version of Fitzgerald all year, there's no way Mississippi State loses four games. The Egg Bowl against Mississippi closes out the year for the Bulldogs on Thursday.

Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss senior QB Jordan Ta'amu completed 32-of-51 passes for 457 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in Saturday's 36-29 overtime loss to Vanderbilt. This was a tough loss for the Rebels, who failed to score on their only overtime possession, but it was another big yardage game for Ta'amu. The senior quarterback gets the privilege of throwing the ball to A.J. Brown and DaMarkus Lodge, who combined for 329 yards and two touchdowns, but Ta'amu is a playmaker in his own right. On the season, Ta'amu has averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt, and he will look to finish off a strong regular season against Mississippi State next week.

Betting Trends

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games played on Thursday and are 1-4 against the number in their last five road games.

Ole Miss

The Rebels are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.

Prediction

I know Ole Miss doesn’t play defense and the Rebels will face one of the top scoring defenses in the nation tonight. That said, this is still a lot of points for a rivalry game. The Bulldogs are just 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine trips to Oxford and 1-8 against the number in their last nine road games versus a team with a losing home record. I like backing underdogs in rivalry week because you usually don’t have to worry about motivation. Since this is a prime time game at home, the Rebels should really get up for this one.

College Football Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels +12.5

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