Ole Miss vs. Mississippi St. Total Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Mississippi State is favored at home, as the Bulldogs are getting odds of -16 points against the Rebels. The over/under total for the contest has been set at 62.5 points. The road team has won the last two meetings with ins this series and the two have hit the under in three of their last four encounters. The public is currently putting 54 percent of the wagers on Ole Miss on the road in this game. Thursday’s game takes place from Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi and will air live on ESPN.
Ole Miss is coming off a 31-23 loss to Texas A&M this past weekend to fall to 5-6 on the season and 2-5 in the SEC. The Rebels are 9-2 with the over this season. Ole Miss has struggled on defense this year, allowing 35.2 points and 455.7 yards per game. Their run defense is giving up 240.9 yards per game on the ground. Offensively, Ole Miss is putting up 33 points and 472.1 yards per contest. The team lost QB Shea Patterson for the season to a knee injury and now Jordan Ta’amu is in. He has thrown for 1,435 yards and nine touchdowns in limited action. Jordan Wilkins has run for 901 yards and seven touchdowns while A.J. Brown has 69 catches for 1,085 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Mississippi State is 8-3 on the season after a 28-21 win at Arkansas last week. The Bulldogs are 4-3 in the SEC and 7-4 with the under this year, but have hit the over in two of their last three games. Mississippi State has been a pretty good defensive team this year, allowing just 19.5 points and 297.3 yards per contest. When it comes to offense, the Bulldogs are putting up 32.5 points and 412.5 yards per contest. Their run game is very impactful, as Aeris Williams has run for 944 yards and five scores while QB Nick Fitzgerald has run for 968 yards and 14 touchdowns. Fitzgerald has also thrown for 1,770 yards and 15 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
The total is being set high for this rivalry game, but I don’t think it can hit. While Mississippi State should continue to have success running the ball against this Ole Miss defense, I don’t think the Rebels will have a huge offensive showing against the Bulldogs. Ole Miss is playing with a backup QB against a very strong defense. I just don’t see the Rebels being able to move the ball consistently.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: OLE MISS/MISSISSIPPI STATE UNDER 62.5