TCU vs. Baylor Prediction & Odds

TCU vs. Baylor 11/19/22 Betting Prediction, Odds & Trends

Number four TCU heads down to Waco, TX to face unranked Baylor at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Horned Frogs cover the spread as 2.5-point road favorites?

TCU is 10-0 on the year, with their best wins coming against Kansas State and Texas. They have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Horned Frogs are 8-1-1 ATS on the year. 

Baylor is 6-4 on the year with their best wins coming against Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Their worst losses came against BYU and West Virginia. The Bears are 6-4 ATS on the year.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

397 TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5) at 398 Baylor Bears (+2.5); O/U 57 

12:00 PM ET Saturday, November 19th, 2022

McLane Stadium, Waco, TX

TCU vs. Baylor Public Betting Information

The public heavily favors the Horned Frogs in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 78% of public bets are on TCU -2.5. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around. 

TCU Game Notes

TCU’s offense has been great all year. They have quarterback Max Duggan who leads the Big 12 in passer rating and running back Kendre Miller who is tied for the conference lead in rushing touchdowns. But a player who has really emerged over the past month and a half for TCU is junior wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The 6’4” 215-pound Temple, Texas native has caught a touchdown in 5 straight games for the Horned Frogs. Johnston is third in the Big 12 in receiving yards with 716, and he’s averaging an efficient 15.9 yards per catch. His size and speed have NFL scouts intrigued and Quentin Johnston may go in the first round if he declares for the draft after the season.

On defense, the Horned Frogs have gotten production from senior cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. Hodges-Tomlinson has recorded an interception in 3 of TCU’s last 4 games and has recorded 5 passes defended in the Horned Frogs’ last 2 contests. Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson will have to be on his game and contain Baylor’s speedy receivers if TCU is going to remain undefeated this Saturday.   

Baylor Game Notes               

Baylor running back Richard Reese has been the Bears’ best offensive player this season. Reese is 6th in the Big 12 in rushing yards this season with 852, and he’s tied for the conference lead in rushing touchdowns with 13. Reese only had 13 rushing attempts in each of Baylor’s last two games combined, but I could see that changing on Saturday as the Bears try to limit the Horned Frogs’ time of possession as a way to keep the score closer.

On defense Baylor is led by senior safety Al Walcott. Walcott leads the team with 66 total tackles on the season and he’s recorded a sack, an interception, and a forced fumble on the year. The Wilmington, North Carolina native has also defended 5 passes on the season. He’ll need to have one of his better games of the campaign if Baylor is going to cover the number this weekend. 

TCU vs. Baylor Betting Trends

TCU is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.

TCU is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

TCU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Baylor.

TCU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at Baylor.

TCU vs. Baylor Betting Prediction

TCU is 10-0 on the season, and they’ve answered the bell at every turn, including winning a difficult night game at Texas last weekend. TCU ranks in the top ten in the country in points per play margin (0.186), yards per play (6.6), and offensive touchdowns per game (4.8). But TCU leads the country in the most important stat for gambling purposes: their record against the spread. TCU is an NCAA-best 8-1-1 against the spread this season which means they cover the number 88.9% of the time. I think the Horned Frogs win and cover this game because they need to keep winning to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. I think TCU’s CFP dream survives another Saturday. I’ll lay the points with the undefeated Frogs. 


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