Illinois vs. Michigan Prediction & Odds
Unranked Illinois heads to Ann Arbor to face #3 Michigan at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Fighting Illini cover the spread as 18-point road underdogs?
Illinois is 7-3 on the year, with their best wins coming against Iowa and Minnesota. Their worst losses came against Indiana and Michigan State. The Fighting Illini are 6-4 ATS on the year.
Michigan is 10-0 on the year with their best wins coming against Penn State and Iowa. The Wolverines will be trying to remain undefeated this weekend. The Wolverines are 6-3-1 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
343 Illinois Fighting Illini (+18) at 344 Michigan Wolverines (-18); O/U 40.5
12:00 PM ET Saturday, November 19th, 2022
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Illinois vs. Michigan Public Betting Information
The public favors the Wolverines in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 60% of public bets are on Michigan -18. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
Illinois Game Notes
The biggest story in this game will be the injury status of Illinois star running back Chase Brown. Brown leads the nation in rushing attempts (280) and rushing yards (1,442). He suffered a lower leg injury that appeared to be painful at the end of Illinois’ game against Purdue last weekend but was seen walking off the field after the game without a noticeable limp. What’s more, Illinois head coach Bret Bielema stated that Chase Brown was “trending in the right direction” when it comes to playing on Saturday. Brown is officially listed as questionable for Saturday’s contest. Brown’s status should be closely monitored up to kickoff.
Illinois has one of the best secondaries in the country, as they’re ranked third nationally in opponent yards per pass attempt. They are led by senior defensive back Jartavius Martin. Martin is second in the conference in passes defended with 11 and third in the conference in interceptions with 3. Martin has also recorded 48 total tackles, a sack, and 2 forced fumbles on the season. He’ll need to step up if the Illini are going to cover this game.
Michigan Game Notes
Illinois might have Chase Brown, but Michigan has a star running back of its own. Wolverines junior running back Blake Corum is second in the nation in rushing touchdowns (17), fourth in rushing yards (1,349), and seventh in rushing attempts (227) on the season. Corum has run for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in each of Michigan’s last seven games, and he’ll try to make it eight on Saturday against Illinois.
Michigan senior linebacker Mike Morris is one of the Wolverines’ best pass rushers. Morris ranks second in the Big Ten with 7 sacks this season, and he’s the only Michigan player with more than 2.5 sacks on the year. The 6’6” 292-pound Belle Glade, FL native has also recorded 20 total tackles, 2 passes defended, and a forced fumble on the season for Michigan. Morris may need to make some plays if the Wolverines are going to win by more than three scores on Saturday.
Illinois vs. Michigan Betting Trends
Illinois is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Illinois is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
Illinois is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between Illinois and Michigan.
Illinois vs. Michigan Betting Prediction
Illinois needs this game badly to stay in the hunt in the Big Ten West. Michigan will likely get the Illini’s grand slam absolute best effort. For the Wolverines, this is the all-time look-ahead spot. Michigan will head to Columbus next weekend to face likely undefeated Ohio State in a monster rivalry game that will have the highest stakes for both sides since 2006. It would be easy for Michigan to overlook Illinois a little bit here. I see this game being a defensive struggle (the total is only 40.5) between two teams that rank in the top four in the country in opponent yards per play. I think Michigan wins a low-scoring brutal affair, but I don’t think they’ll cover the number.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI +18