Oklahoma State vs. TCU Prediction
Public bettors are loading up on Oklahoma State but is the right play TCU today in Fort Worth?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Horned Frogs are now 6-point home favorites versus the Cowboys after opening as a 4.5-point favorite. As for the total, the number hit the board at 68.5 but has been bet up to 70 for this 12:00PM ET kickoff.
The Cowboys have won four of the last five meetings between these two schools, with their lone loss coming at TCU in 2014. Oklahoma State hasn't won in Fort Worth since 1947 and is 0-3-2 since that date. The Cowboys are one game behind in-state rival Oklahoma for first place in the Big 12 and they must win this week to keep any hopes of a conference championship alive. An Oklahoma State loss plus and Oklahoma win would clinch the outright title for the Sooners, who are in Morgantown Saturday night to take on West Virginia.
TCU has won four straight games against AP-ranked opponents at home, including a 42-9 victory over then-No. 15 Oklahoma State in 2014. The Horned Frogs have received a major contribution from Kyle Hicks this season, as the running back has 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for second-most in the Big 12 behind Texas' D'Onta Foreman, who has 13. TCU has also recorded a sack in 39 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the FBS behind Clemson at 30.
OUR PREDICTION: This line doesn't make a lot of sense when you consider Oklahoma State is receiving 68% backing from public bettors. The public has been betting the Cowboys since they opened at +4 and yet the line has jumped to +6 in favor of the Horned Frogs. That type of line movement is an indication of sharp money being on the home favorite. I too like TCU in this spot. The Cowboys have had trouble with dual-threat quarterbacks and the Horned Frogs have one of their own in Kenny Hill. Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech and Baylor's Seth Russell each had success against Oklahoma State's defense this season and Hill ranks third in the Big 12 in total offense. The home team is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings between these two teams.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PICK: TCU HORNED FROGS -6