Arkansas vs. Miss State Prediction
Will Arkansas pull off the small upset tonight when it visits Mississippi State at 7:00PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Bulldogs are 2-point home favorites versus the Razorbacks after the game opened as a pick'em. As for the total, the number opened at 57.5 and has been bet up to 59 at the majority of sports books.
The Razorbacks have been a solid bet coming off losses, covering in five of their last six such games. They're also 9-3 at the betting window in their last 12 road games, although they're just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games overall. They're also winless at 0-4 against the spread in their last four games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous contest.
The Bulldogs have dropped five of their last seven games at the betting window and are 1-4 against the number in their last five games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. That said, they're 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games after failing to cover in their previous game. They're also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
OUR PREDICTION: The favorite has covered the spread in five of the last seven games between these two teams while the home team is 10-4 at the betting window in the last 14 meetings. The Razorbacks have also struggled to cover in Starkville, going just 2-6 at the betting window in their last eight road games versus the Bulldogs. The last time Mississippi State was at home it upset Texas A&M 35-28 as a 10-point underdog. While the Bulldogs are favored this time around, this game has a similar feel to that A&M game. Bettors wondered why the Bulldogs weren't a bigger underdog versus the Aggies that week and now they're questioning while Mississippi State is favored at all versus Arkansas. Lay the points.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS -2