TCU vs. Texas Tech Prediction
After getting smoked by Oklahoma last week, are the TCU Horned Frogs once again on upset alert today when they take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at 12:00 p.m. ET?
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: TCU. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Horned Frogs are 6-point road favorites to top the Red Raiders, who opened as 8-point home favorites. As for the total, the number hit the board at 59 but was bet all the way down to 52.5.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: TCU. Despite losing last week and failing to cover, the Horned Frogs are still receiving the majority of the bets. As of Saturday morning, 65% of tickets were on TCU to cover.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: Texas Tech. The home team is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams while the underdog has cashed in four of the last five meetings. The Horned Frogs are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five games versus the Red Raiders and are winless at the betting window in their last four games in Lubbock.
WHO WE LIKE: TCU. At first glance I loved Tech getting points at home and apparently some bettors do too, because the point spread dropped two full points off the opening number. With no Kenny Hill and Darius Anderson, I didn't like the idea of backing an already struggling TCU offense that is playing on the road and giving up points.
That said, Tech's win over Baylor last week is misleading. The Red Raiders were actually out-gained in that game by a 523-337 margin. Plus, Tech quarterback struggled against the only other good Big 12 defense he faced this year, which was Iowa State. In that game, he had just 207 passing yards at home versus the Cyclones.
TCU ranks fifth in the nation in defense and is holding opponents to 132 yards per game below their season average. Both of these teams have been heading in the wrong direction over the last three weeks, but despite their injuries, I still I like the Horned Frogs to cover because of their defense.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PICK: TCU HORNED FROGS -6