Miss State vs. Arkansas Prediction
Following a physical came last week against Alabama, will Mississippi State muster enough to beat Arkansas and cover the spread as a double-digit road underdog today at 12:00 p.m. ET?
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Mississippi State. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Bulldogs are now 13-point road favorites to beat the Razorbacks, who opened as 12.5-point underdogs. As for the total, the number hit the board at 59 but was bet down a half-point to 58.5.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: Mississippi State. As of Saturday morning, just over 60% of the betting tickets were on the Bulldogs to cover the point spread.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: Mississippi State and the over. The road team has covered in four of the last four meetings between these two teams and the favorite has cashed in six of the last eight meetings. That said, the Bulldogs are just 2-5 at the betting window in their last seven road games versus the Razorbacks. The over, meanwhile, is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Arkansas and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall.
WHO WE LIKE: Arkansas. I just don't like this spot for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a huge effort as a home underdog versus Alabama and were leading in the fourth quarter before Jalen Hurts and Co. eventually rallied. The Bulldogs also have the Egg Bowl coming up and have already clinched a bowl berth. On top of that, they don't have a shot at the SEC West title so outside of pride, what else does Mississippi State have to play for here?
Meanwhile, Arkansas got Austin Allen back last week and while he was a little rusty, he's a gamer. Despite having a huge buyout, Bret Bielema is likely coaching for his job so while I expect a letdown for the Bulldogs, I expect the Razorbacks' best effort. (Whatever that looks like.)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PICK: ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS +13