Miss State vs. Arkansas Spread Pick
The Arkansas Razorbacks are just 2-8 on the year and are not bowl eligible but will they hang within three touchdowns as a massive road underdog when they visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs at 12:00 p.m. ET?
387 Arkansas Razorbacks at 388 Mississippi State Bulldogs
12:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, November 17, 2018
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Bulldogs are 21.5-point favorites to beat the Razorbacks. The total, meanwhile, sits at 47 points. As of this writing, 59% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Razorbacks.
Arkansas redshirt junior QB Ty Storey completed 23-of-36 passes for 240 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions 45-31 loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday. Storey was returning from a concussion he suffered on October 13th against Ole Miss and turned in an up-and-down outing. Both of his passing touchdowns came in the fourth quarter as the Razorbacks were unable to hang around with Vanderbilt. Storey now has a 9/7 TD/INT ratio this season, fairly representative of the 2-7 Razorbacks struggles. Things aren't going to get easier as they take on No. 4 LSU at home in two weeks.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State redshirt senior QB Nick Fitzgerald completed 11-of-20 passes for 125 yards in a 24-0 loss to Alabama on Saturday. First of all, goodness gracious this Alabama defense is ridiculous. Now that we got that away, Fitzgerald did not have a great game against the Tide, and a quarterback we routinely see pick up triple-digits in the run game had negative 14 on Saturday, even with a gain of 11. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound signal-caller has had tremendous production at times, but there have been far too many games like this; particularly this year. He'll look to rebound against a much easier opponent in Arkansas.
The Razorbacks are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in their last five games coming off a loss.
The Bulldogs are 5-2 against the number in their last seven games following a loss of more than 20 points.
The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in scoring defensively and have allowed 19 or more points in just three games this season. That said, Mississippi State’s offense has been stagnant for most of the season. Granted, no team moves the ball versus Alabama and there’s no shame in struggling offensively versus LSU in Baton Rouge, which Mississippi State did a few weeks ago. Still, I don’t feel comfortable laying 21.5 points with a Bulldogs team that has struggled to get into the end zone for over a month. This is too many points.
College Football Prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +21.5