San Diego St. vs. Fresno St. Prediction
Can Fresno State keep up its perfect record against the spread at home this season when the Bulldogs host San Diego State at 10:30PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
421 San Diego State at 422 Fresno State
Saturday, November 17, 2018
10:30PM ET – Bulldog Stadium
TV: CBS Sports Network
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Fresno State is the favorite at home, as the Bulldogs are getting odds of -13 points against SDSU. The over/under total for the contest is currently listed at 42 points. The public betting currently has 59 percent going on San Diego State on the road.
Fresno State coming off loss
The Fresno State football team saw its seven-game win streak come to an end last week in a 24-17 loss at Boise State. The Bulldogs are now 8-2 on the season and 5-1 in the MWC. Fresno State is also 8-2 against the spread and 6-4 with the under. Fresno had its cover streak ended last week as well, but is 4-0 ATS at home this season.
The Bulldogs have been led by their impressive defense this season. They are allowing just 13.5 points and 321.1 yards per game. Their pass defense is holding opponents to 187.3 yards per contest. Offensively, Fresno is putting up 38.1 points and 427.2 yards per game. Marcus McMaryion has thrown for 2,699 yards and 21 touchdowns this year with just three interceptions while also rushing for seven touchdowns. KeeSean Johnson has 70 catches for 953 yards and seven touchdowns while Jordan Mims is the leading rusher with 353 yards and four touchdowns.
San Diego State struggling to cover
The San Diego State Aztecs are coming off a surprising loss to UNLV at home last week for their second loss in three games. The Aztecs were 24-point favorites coming into the game and lost 27-24. They are now 7-3 overall and 4-2 in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are 2-8 against the spread and 7-3 with the under. They have failed to cover in five straight.
San Diego State has been strong defensively on the year as well, allowing 20.7 points and 302.3 yards per game. Their run defense is holding opponents to just 94.7 yards per contest. Offensively, San Diego State has struggled for consistency, putting up just 22.4 points and 356.4 yards per game. The team has their leading two receivers injured right now, but they only had over 300 yards each. The offense is led by Juwan Washington, who has rushed for 674 yards and eight touchdowns while Chase Jasmin has 585 rushing yards and five scores. Ryan Agnew has thrown for 1,404 yards and eight touchdowns.
College Football Betting Trends
Fresno State is 14-2 against the spread in its last 16 against winning teams and 21-4-1 ATS in its last 26 games overall.
San Diego State
San Diego State is 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 games on fieldturf, but just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road.
Fresno State has been a cover machine and San Diego State has been anything but. However, I think that is playing into a spread that is a little too big for the Bulldogs. The Aztecs have just two losses on the year and both have been by 4 points or less. SDSU isn’t a perfect team, but the Aztecs keep games competitive. Fresno State got a taste of that kind of grind-it-out football last week in the loss at Boise. I think this will be an ugly football game and will be hard for the Bulldogs to pull away and cover.
College Football Prediction: San Diego State +13