Memphis vs. SMU Prediction

Memphis Tigers vs. SMU Mustangs, 11/16/18 Predictions & Odds

Will the Memphis Tigers be able to go on the road and cover a two-score spread when they face SMU in American Athletic Conference play tonight at 9PM ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

315 Memphis at 316 SMU

Friday, November 16, 2018

9PM ET – Gerald J. Ford Stadium

TV: ESPN2

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Memphis is the favorite on the road, as the Tigers are getting odds of -7.5 points against the Mustangs tonight. The over/under total for the contest is set at 73.5 points. The public betting currently has 60 percent going on SMU at home.

Memphis with back-to-back wins

The Tigers are coming off back-to-back wins over ECU and Tulsa the last two weeks to move to 6-4 on the season and 3-3 in the AAC. Memphis is 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 with the over. The Tigers have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

Memphis has a very potent offense to deal with. The Tigers are putting up 44.6 points and 531.9 yards per game this year, including 270 rushing yards per game. Darrell Henderson has rushed for 1,446 yards and 17 touchdowns to lead the way while Patrick Taylor Jr. has 654 rushing yards and 10 scores. Quarterback Brady White has thrown for an impressive 2,512 yards with 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Damonte Coxie has caught 58 passes for 949 yards and seven touchdowns.

SMU also with back-to-back wins

SMU has won back-to-back games as well, defeating Houston and Connecticut the last two weeks. The Mustangs are now 5-5 overall and 4-2 in the AAC. They are 5-5 against the spread and 5-5 with the over/under total as well. SMU is 3-1 against the spread in their last four games.

The Mustangs haven’t been terribly great on defense this year, allowing 36.8 points and 431.8 yards per game. Their rush defense is allowing over 200 yards per game. When it comes to offense, SMU is putting up 32.3 points and 390 yards per game. Ben Hicks is leading the offense with 1,919 passing yards and 16 touchdowns with just four interceptions. James Proche is his top receiver. He has 70 catches for 882 yards and nine touchdowns while Braeden West has 536 rushing yards and six scores.

College Football Betting Trends

Memphis

Memphis has covered the spread in four straight conference games, but in just one of their last five road games.

SMU

SMU is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games in November, but 5-1 ATS in their last six games on fieldturf.

Prediction:

Memphis has a lot to throw opponents, but the Tigers’ offense hasn’t been nearly as impactful on the road. The Memphis defense is definitely far worse on the road. Henderson has had three of his worst four performances this year all come on the road. While SMU isn’t a great defense, I think the problem is more on Memphis and their lack of overcoming travel. The Mustangs have played well at home this year. The lone loss at home was an OT defeat against ranked Cincy. I will take SMU and the points at home against this Memphis team that can’t be trusted away from home.

College Football Prediction: SMU +7.5

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