Fresno St. vs. San Diego St. Prediction
Can San Diego State avoid a letdown at home when the Aztecs play host to Fresno State tonight at 9:30PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
317 Fresno State vs. 318 San Diego State
Friday, November 15, 2019
9:30PM ET – SDCCU Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, San Diego State is the slight favorite at home, as the Aztecs are getting odds of -1 points against Fresno State. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 42.5 points. The public betting currently has 66 percent going on San Diego State as the home favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
San Diego State slips up
San Diego State had a four-game win streak come to an end last weekend in a 17-13 loss at home to Nevada. The Aztecs are now 7-2 on the season and 4-2 in the Mountain West. They still lead the West Division by a game over Nevada and Hawaii. SDSU is 5-4 against the spread this year and 8-1 with the under.
The Aztecs have had one of the top defenses in the country this year, allowing just 14.4 points and 277.2 yards per game. Their run defense (65.4 ypg) ranks second nationally. Luq Barcoo is leading the unit with 43 tackles and five interceptions. Offensively, SDSU is among the worst in the county. The Aztecs are putting up just 20.8 points and 327.7 yards per outing. Ryan Agnew is leading the nation with 1,623 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. Juwan Washington is the team’s leading rusher with 450 yards and two scores while Kobe Smith is the leading receiver with 46 catches for 554 yards and four scores.
Fresno State struggling for consistency
Fresno State is coming off a 37-35 loss at home to Utah State last weekend. The Bulldogs have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. They are now 4-5 on the season, 2-3 in the Mountain West, 3-5-1 against the spread and 7-2 with the over.
Offensively, Fresno State has been productive this year. The Bulldogs are averaging 34.3 points and 415.8 yards per game. Defensively, Fresno State is giving up 32.4 points and 422.4 yards per contest. Jorge Reyna is leading the team with 2,106 yards and 11 touchdowns passing. He also has rushed for 262 yards and two scores. Ronnie Rivers is the leading rusher with 655 yards and 11 touchdowns while Zane Pope has 38 receptions for 397 yards and a score.
College Football Betting Trends
San Diego State
The Aztecs are just 1-8 against the spread in their last nine home games and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games on grass.
The Bulldogs have covered the spread in five of their last six games on grass and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.
Fresno State has won five of the last seven against San Diego State while the Bulldogs have covered the spread in six of their last eight meetings. While Fresno has the trends on their side, I don’t think this is a matchup that favors them. The Bulldogs have a strong rushing attack, but they are running up against one of the best rushing defenses while going on the road. San Diego State isn’t going to pull away from anyone, and Fresno has the better playmakers, but the Aztecs defense has been able to dictate the style of play for most of their games. Fresno has struggled with strong defensive teams and I am not sure they can win ugly. The Aztecs can do that and know how to do it. Being at home, I like them to find a way to win with their defense.
College Football Week 12 Prediction: San Diego State -1