UNC vs. Pittsburgh Prediction
Can North Carolina pull off a minor upset on the road when the Tar Heels take on Pittsburgh tonight at 8PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
313 North Carolina vs. 314 Pittsburgh
Thursday, November 14, 2019
8PM ET – Heinz Field
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Pittsburgh is the favorite at home, as the Panthers are getting odds of -4 points against North Carolina. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 50.5 points. The public betting currently has 54 percent going on North Carolina as the road underdog. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Pitt stringing together wins
Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-10 win at Georgia Tech on Nov. 2. The Panthers have won five of their last six and their last two losses were by just one score. Pitt is now 6-3 on the season, 3-2 in the ACC, 6-3 against the spread and 7-2 with the under.
The Panthers haven’t been great defensively in years past, but this year’s unit is playing well. They are giving up just 20.1 points and 280.2 yards per game in 2019. The unit is led by Kylan Johnson, who has 39 tackles with six sacks. Offensively, Pitt is only averaging 20.9 points and 380 yards per contest. Kenny Pickett has led the offense with 1,952 passing yards and nine touchdowns, but he also has eight interceptions. Taysir Mack and Maurice Ffrench have combined for 128 receptions for 1,216 yards and five scores. A.J. Davis is the leading rusher with 407 yards and three scores.
UNC in a rough patch
North Carolina is coming off a 38-31 loss at Virginia back on Nov. 2 for a fifth loss in seven games. The Tar Heels are now just 4-5 on the season, 3-3 in the ACC, 5-4 against the spread and 5-4 with the over.
The Tar Heels have a respectable offense that is putting up 27.9 points and 445.9 yards per game. Defensively, UNC is allowing 27.1 points and 396.3 yards per outing. Quarterback Sam Howell is having a nice season, as he has thrown for 2,472 yards and 26 touchdowns with just five interceptions. However, he has been sacked 28 times. Dyami Brown is his leading receiver with 32 catches for 679 yards and eight touchdowns while Javonte Williams is the leading rusher with 738 yards and three touchdowns. Chazz Surratt has been leading the defense with 90 tackles, five sacks and an interception.
College Football Betting Trends
The Panthers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games in November and in seven of their last 10 games following a win.
UNC is just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record, but 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a failed cover.
North Carolina has had Pittsburgh’s number over the years. The Tar Heels have won seven straight in the series while covering the spread in six of those seven meetings. UNC was the underdog in three of those victories as well. UNC has been in a rough stretch of losses, but they all have been by one score, with three of the five coming by three points or less. Pittsburgh hasn’t shown an ability to pull away from opponents either, as every win has been within 10 points. I think this game is low-scoring and close and could come down to a last-second FG. With that said, I will take my chances on the Tar Heels and the points.
College Football Week 12 Prediction: North Carolina +4