Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Total Pick
Will the Arkansas Razorbacks and Mississippi State Bulldogs combine for enough points to push the score over the low total on Saturday? The SEC programs will meet at 12:00 p.m. ET in Starkville.
387 Arkansas Razorbacks at 388 Mississippi State Bulldogs
12:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, November 17, 2018
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Bulldogs are 21-point favorites to beat the Razorbacks. The total, meanwhile, sits at 46.5 points. As of this writing, 58% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Razorbacks.
Arkansas redshirt junior QB Ty Storey completed 23-of-36 passes for 240 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions 45-31 loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday. Storey was returning from a concussion he suffered on October 13th against Ole Miss and turned in an up-and-down outing. Both of his passing touchdowns came in the fourth quarter as the Razorbacks were unable to hang around with Vanderbilt. Storey now has a 9/7 TD/INT ratio this season, fairly representative of the 2-7 Razorbacks struggles. Things aren't going to get easier as they take on No. 4 LSU at home in two weeks.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State redshirt senior QB Nick Fitzgerald completed 11-of-20 passes for 125 yards in a 24-0 loss to Alabama on Saturday. First of all, goodness gracious this Alabama defense is ridiculous. Now that we got that away, Fitzgerald did not have a great game against the Tide, and a quarterback we routinely see pick up triple-digits in the run game had negative 14 on Saturday, even with a gain of 11. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound signal-caller has had tremendous production at times, but there have been far too many games like this; particularly this year. He'll look to rebound against a much easier opponent in Arkansas.
The over is 4-0 in the Razorbacks’ last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
The under is 8-0 in the Bulldogs’ last eight games coming off a loss of more than 20 points.
These two offenses are dreadful for SEC teams but Mississippi State still owns one of the top defenses in the nation so I’m taking the under. The under is 4-0 in the Razorbacks’ last four road games and 5-2 in their last seven games coming off a loss. The under is also 4-0 in the Bulldogs’ last four home games, is 6-0 in their last six games coming off a loss and is 18-5 in their last 23 games overall.
College Football Prediction: Arkansas/Mississippi State under 46.5