Oklahoma vs. Baylor Free Pick
In what essentially is an elimination game for Baylor, the Bears will look to stay in the college football playoff mix when they host Oklahoma tonight at 8:00PM ET.
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Bears are now 2.5-point home favorites over the Sooners after Oklahoma opened as a 4-point road underdog. The total, meanwhile, opened at 77 before dropping slightly to 76.
Oklahoma enters play with an 8-1 record as its only loss came in the Red River Rivalry against Texas. The Sooners are also 7-2 against the spread this season while the Bears are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 4-3 against the number.
Rather surprisingly, 53% of public bettors are taking the points with Oklahoma tonight. But is 2.5 enough to back a Sooners team that was beaten by 29 and 34 points versus the Bears the past two seasons? Granted, Oklahoma plays the best defense in the Big 12. Hell, there's an argument to be made that the Sooners are the best overall team in the conference, held back by only a loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry. But Baylor is plus-360 yards per game with a 38-point average margin of victory over the pat three years at home according to ESPN.com. And while the Bears failed to cover last week in Manhattan, it wasn't because freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham held them back. Yes, OU beat Kansas State 55-0 on the road earlier this year. But Baylor is 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS at hoem versus ranked opponents over the last five years. If the Sooners were getting more than 2.5 points we'd see the value in taking OU. But the explosive Bears are too tempting at that number.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 FREE PICK: BAYLOR BEARS -2.5