UConn vs. UCF Prediction
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, UCF is the clear favorite at home, as the Golden Knights are getting odds of -40.5 points against Connecticut. The over/under total for the contest has been set at 64 points. These two have split their last four meetings straight up and against the spread. The public is currently putting 62 percent of the wagers on Connecticut with the points. Today’s game takes place from Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida and the contest will air live on ESPNU.
Central Florida is coming off a 31-24 win at SMU to improve to 8-0 on the season and 5-0 in the AAC. The Knights are 5-2-1 against the spread on the season but 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games. UCF has one of the best offensive units in football, averaging 48.5 points and 540.4 yards per game. QB McKenzie Milton has thrown for 2,409 yards and 20 touchdowns to lead the team while also rushing for 298 yards and three scores. Adrian Killins Jr. is the leading rusher with 575 yards and seven touchdowns while Tre’Quan Smith has 33 receptions for 641 yards and nine touchdowns.
Connecticut is coming off a 37-20 loss at home to South Florida to fall to 3-6 on the season and 2-4 in the AAC. The Huskies are 3-6 against the spread on the year, covering in three of their last four games. UConn has struggled on defense, allowing 38.3 points and 554.3 yards per game this season. Their pass defense is one of the worst in the nation, allowing 378.6 yards per game in the air. Offensively, Connecticut is putting up 24.7 points and 412 yards per game. QB Bryant Shirreffs has thrown for 2,287 yards and 14 touchdowns this year, but he is out for today’s game due to a concussion. Backup David Pindell is also doubtful to play today due to a concussion. Hergy Mayala is the leading receiver with 32 catches for 503 yards and five touchdowns while Nate Hopkins has run for 301 yards and seven scores. He is also dealing with an injury, but is expected to suit up today.
The spread is enormous in this one and no matter how bad the matchup looks on paper, it’s hard to expect any team to beat a conference opponent by at least 41 points. A lot can happen in a football game to throw off a spread of this size. While I think UCF will win with ease, I just don’t feel good expecting them to win by more than five touchdowns. UCF didn’t even beat Austin Peay by 41 points a few weeks ago.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: CONNECTICUT +40.5