Arkansas vs. LSU Prediction
Is 17 points too much to lay on LSU against Arkansas following the Alabama game last week? Kickoff for this SEC matchup is set for 12:00 p.m. ET and here is our pick.
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: LSU. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Tigers are 17-point home favorites to beat the Razorbacks, who opened as 17.5-point road underdogs. As for the total, the number currently sits at 55 points after hitting the board at 58.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: Arkansas. That 2-6 record against the spread isn't scaring bettors off the Razorbacks, who are receiving 56% of tickets as of Saturday morning.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Baton Rouge and have covered in eight of their last 10 games versus the Tigers overall.
WHO WE LIKE: LSU. I can't back an Arkansas team that trailed by 12 points to Coastal Carolina (who is 1-7, by the way) heading into the fourth quarter last week. The Razorbacks always seem to catch LSU following the 'Bama game but the Tigers actually out-gained the Crimson Tide this year so it was a solid effort.
I'm well aware of the trends in this matchup. The Razorbacks are 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams and are a respectable 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit conference road underdog. But LSU crushed Arkansas 38-10 last year and while the Tigers are even better this season, the Razorbacks are worse. Even with Austin Allen expected back for the Hogs, I can't back them.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PICK: LSU TIGERS -17