Alabama vs. Miss State Prediction
Will the Mississippi State Bulldogs stay within two touchdowns at home tonight when they host the Alabama Crimson Tide at 7:00 p.m. ET?
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: Alabama. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Crimson Tide are a 14-point road favorite to beat the Bulldogs, who opened as 14.5-point home underdogs. As for the total, the number currently sits at 52 points after hitting the board at 50.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: Alabama. As of this writing, 65% of public bettors are backing the Tide and laying the points at the betting window.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: The under and the home team. The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Starkville and is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings overall. The home team has also covered in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams.
WHO WE LIKE: Mississippi State. Alabama has beaten Mississippi State by a combined score of 82- over the last two seasons but Nick Saban's squad is banged-up. Defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick is questionable, which is the most optimistic injury news for 'Bama heading into today. Meanwhile, the linebacker corps has been decimated for the Tide. Shaun Dion Hamilton is out for the season with a knee injury, Christian Miller is out for the season with a biceps tear, and Mack Wilson is out until mid December with a foot injury. That's a lot of injuries to overcome for any team, including a deep program like Alabama.
I could see Saban telling his coaching staff that he wants to protect the defense by running the football, playing the time-of-possession game and sneaking out of Starkville with a victory.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 6-1 against the spread as home dogs of more than 10 points. Alabama has zero wins this season against current top-25 teams and while the Tide are certainly talented, Starkville is a difficult place to win. I love taking the points with the dogs tonight.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS +14