Alabama vs. Miss State Spread Prediction
Fresh off their shutout win over LSU, the Alabama Crimson Tide return home in Week 11 when they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Are the Tide laying too many points in this conference matchup at 3:30 p.m. ET?
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, November 10
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Crimson Tide are 22-point favorites to beat the Bulldogs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 51.5 points. As of this writing, 64% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Crimson Tide.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State redshirt senior QB Nick Fitzgerald completed 17-of-28 passes for 243 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 107 yards in Saturday's 45-3 win over Louisiana Tech. Fitzgerald (6'5/230) came out firing, tossing three of his four touchdown passes in the first quarter before finishing up with his fourth and final scoring toss in the second quarter. Mississippi State hit the locker room holding a 31-3 lead. The redshirt senior signal-caller had just three previous contests of multiple touchdown passes entering the weekend. While this was a nice performance against an outclassed team, we are not expecting Fitzgerald to do much of anything against Alabama next weekend.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa tweaked his sprained right knee in Saturday's game against LSU. Tagovailoa said the injury happened on his 44-yard touchdown run and "explained, "I know when I hit the 30 [yard line], my leg gave out, and I was just going off of momentum and trying to gallop into the end zone, and I made it, thank God." He also said it's "just dinged up" and that it isn't serious. Tagovailoa looks to be fairly healthy is locking up his Heisman campaign with each game he plays. Up next is Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games but covered seven of their last 10 games overall.
The Crimson Tide are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games versus an opponent with a winning record but 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played in the month of November.
This is a natural letdown spot for Alabama coming off the road trip to Baton Rouge. If the spread were hovering around two touchdowns instead of three, I’d be tempted to lay the wood with the Tide but this Mississippi State team is solid defensively, ranking sixth in total yards, seventh in passing yards allowed, 17th in rushing yards allowed and second in scoring defense. Nick Fitzgerald and Co. won’t score much against a ‘Bama team playing its best defense of the season but I’m still grabbing the points.
College Football Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs +22