Bama vs. Mississippi State Total Pick
Will Alabama and Mississippi State play a physical, low-scoring game on Saturday night?
Matchup: Alabama (9-0) at Mississippi State (7-2)
TV: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -14 (51)
Current Point Spread & Over/Under Total
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the over/under currently sits at 51 points after hitting the board at 50. Mississippi State opened as a 14.5-point home underdog but the line dropped to 14.
Who is the Public Backing?
As of Thursday morning, Alabama is receiving 65% of the tickets at the betting window for Saturday night's game.
Key Betting Trends
The home team in this series is 5-2 at the betting window in the last seven meetings. That said, the Crimson Tide is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven road games. On the other side, the Bulldogs are 21-5 against the number in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
OUR PREDICTION: The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Starkville. In the last 18 meetings, the under is also 14-3-1.
Meanwhile, the under is 13-5 in the Crimson Tide's last 18 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in its previous game. The under is also 38-18-1 in Alabama's last 57 games in November and 19-9 in its last 28 games played on grass.
On the other side, the under is 5-1 in the Bulldogs' last six home games, is 4-1 in their last five games coming off a win, and is 4-1 in their last five games when facing an opponent with a winning record. The under is also 4-1 in their last five conference games and has cashed in five of their last seven games overall.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PICK: ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI STATE UNDER 51