LSU vs. Alabama Total Pick
Can No. 2 LSU continue its offensive surge when it goes on the road to face No. 3 Alabama in the featured game of Week 11 this Saturday at 3:30PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
167 LSU vs. 168 Alabama
Saturday, November 9, 2019
3:30PM ET – Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Alabama is the favorite at home, as the Crimson Tide are getting odds of -6.5 points against LSU. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 65 points. The public betting currently has 57 percent going on LSU as the road underdog. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Tigers with a top offense
The LSU Tigers are 8-0 on the season following a 23-20 win at home over Auburn two weeks ago. LSU has a 4-0 record in the SEC this year while going 5-3 against the spread and 5-3 with the over.
LSU is among the best in the nation offensively, as the Tigers are putting up 46.8 points and 536 yards per contest. Defensively, LSU is allowing 20 points and 316.5 yards per contest. Joe Burrow is among the top Heisman contenders right now, as he has thrown for 2,805 yards and 30 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are his leading receivers. They have combined for 98 receptions, 1,568 yards and 18 touchdowns. On the ground, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is leading the team with 683 yards and eight touchdowns.
Bama with injury concern
Alabama is coming off a 48-7 win at home over Arkansas two weeks ago to improve to 8-0 on the season and 5-0 in the SEC. The Crimson Tide are 4-4 against the spread while going 4-4 with the over/under total.
Bama has been great on both sides of the ball, as the defense is allowing just 15.2 points and 307.9 yards per game, while the offense is averaging 48.6 points and 506.9 yards per contest. Bama does have a big concern though, as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is questionable to play on Saturday as he recovers from ankle surgery. Tua has thrown or 2,166 yards and 27 touchdowns with two interceptions. If he can’t go, Mac Jones will get the start. Jones has thrown for 472 yards and four touchdowns in his place thus far. DeVonta Smith is the team’s leading receiver with 43 catches for 721 yards and nine touchdowns, while Najee Harris is the leading rusher with 642 yards and five scores.
College Football Betting Trends
The Tigers have hit the over in four of their last five road games and in seven of their last 11 games overall.
The Crimson Tide are 8-1 with the under in their last nine games following a bye and in seven of their last 10 games in November.
These two have hit the under in five straight meetings, as both teams have relied on physical defenses to win games in recent years. LSU actually hasn’t put up more than 17 points in nine straight against the Tide. However, this is a much different LSU team. This is likely the best offensive LSU team Alabama has faced. The Tide have remained dominant, but haven’t had much of a schedule. It’s hard to say if they are really up to the challenge of LSU, which has already met with Auburn and Florida in the last month. I expect the Bama defense to challenge LSU like Auburn did, but the Tigers should still find points. I think the Bama offense is going to have some struggles, with or without Tua. The Tide aren’t just going to have their way with the Tigers on that side of the ball. I just don’t see 65 being scored in this rivalry game, no matter how much offensive talent there is.
College Football Week 11 Prediction: LSU/Alabama Under 65