Florida vs. Missouri Spread Prediction
The Missouri Tigers should have had a win last week at home versus Kentucky but a phantom pass interference call did them in, dropping them to 4-4 on the season. Can the Tigers at least cover as a road underdog at Florida today at 4:00 p.m. ET or will the Gators rebound from their loss to UGA?
4:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, November 3, 2018
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Gators are 6.5-point favorites to beat the Tigers. The total, meanwhile, sits at 57.5 points. As of this writing, 71% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Gators.
Florida redshirt sophomore QB Feleipe' Franks completed 13-of-27 passes for 105 yards, a touchdown and an interception while rushing for 30 yards and a score in Saturday's 36-17 loss to Georgia. The Gators played Georgia tough, but Franks did relatively little to aid the cause. He rushed for a short score early in the second quarter and hit Freddie Swain for a nice 36-yard touchdown to start the third quarter. Otherwise, not much doing. A short while after that touchdown pass, he fumbled near his own goal, a fumble which Georgia recovered (Florida subsequently put up a fantastic stand to prevent a touchdown). Franks has shown improvement under HC Dan Mullen this season, but remains more or less the same quarterback he's been his entire career in Gainesville.
Missouri senior QB Drew Lock completed 15-of-27 passes for just 165 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions in Saturday's 15-14 loss against Kentucky. Missouri entered the game with at least 29 points in six of their seven contests, with a 39-10 setback at Alabama on Oct. 13 as the only exception. The Wildcats defense has been a key reason why Big Blue carried a top-15 ranking into play in Columbia. Lock and the Tigers will go back to the drawing board looking to right the ship next Saturday at Florida. They need to find two wins in the final four games to send Lock out on a high note in a bowl game.
The Tigers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five conference games and winless ATS in their last four road games.
The Gators are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
This game will go one of two ways and it depends on Florida. After losing to Georgia last week, if Florida comes out flat believing it has nothing to play for anymore, Mizzou has more than enough weapons offensively to hang in until the end. If the Gators are motivated, then their defense should suffocate Drew Lock, who has never beaten a top-25 team in three-plus years under center for the Tigers. This Mizzou team is a paper tiger, thumping lesser competition and then shrinking against any SEC team with a pulse (as evidence of their 4-4 record, with all four losses coming against conference foes). I’m banking on Florida coming out flat, however. The Gators lost a second-half lead last week and was bullied by a more physical Georgia team. They lack explosiveness on offense and Mizzou actually has an underrated front four defensively. Gators win but Tigers cover.
College Football Prediction: Missouri Tigers +6.5