Central Florida vs. SMU Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Central Florida is favored on the road in this game, as the Golden Knights are getting odds of -14.5 points against SMU. The over/under total for the contest has been set at 75.5 points. UCF has won six of the last seven meetings with SMU and the two have hit the over in three of their last four encounters. The public is currently putting 85 percent of the wagers on Central Florida on the road. Saturday’s game takes place from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas and will air live on ESPN2.
SMU is coming off a 38-34 win over Tulsa at home last week to improve to 6-2 on the season and 3-1 in the AAC. The Mustangs are 4-4 with the over/under total, but have hit the under in their last three games. SMU is averaging 41.5 points and 507 yards per game on offense this season. Ben Hicks has thrown for 2,305 yards and 19 touchdowns to lead the offense while Trey Quinn had 79 catches for 874 yards and seven scores. Courtland Sutton has added 43 receptions for 706 yards and nine touchdowns. Xavier Jones is the leading rusher with 616 yards and five scores. Defensively, SMU is allowing 31 points and 439.6 yards per game this season.
Central Florida is off to a 7-0 start following a 73-33 win over Austin Peay last week. The Golden Knights are 4-0 in conference play and 4-3 with the over. UCF has been dominant on both sides of the ball this season. The Knights average 51 points and 529.7 yards per game on offense while allowing just 19.7 points and 348.1 yards per game on defense. McKenzie Milton is leading the offense with 1,997 passing yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for 254 yards and two scores. Tre’Quan Smith is the leading receiver with 26 receptions for 500 yards and nine touchdowns. Adrian Killins Jr. is leading the ground effort with 430 yards and five touchdowns.
Despite how productive these offenses have been, all signs point to the under hitting on Saturday. UCF is 8-3 with the under in its last 11 conference games and 5-2 with it in its last seven road games. SMU has hit the under in 13 of its last 19 after a win and in 19 of its last 26 following a failed cover. While both teams can put up points, the UCF defense is likely to limit what SMU will do, making it tough for these two to get to 76 points.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: CENTRAL FLORIDA/SMU UNDER 75.5