TCU vs. Iowa State Prediction
Will Iowa State pull off yet another upset when it hosts TCU on Saturday? Or will the Horned Frogs cover as a road favorite?
ODDSMAKERS LIKE: TCU. According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Horned Frogs are 7-point road favorites to beat the Cyclones, who also opened as a 7-point home underdog. As for the total, the number hit the board at 53 but has been bet down to 48 at the majority of online sports books.
THE PUBLIC LIKES: The Horned Frogs. As of Saturday morning, 66% of public bettors are backing TCU to cover the seven points. The Horned Frogs enter play with a perfect 7-0 record and are 4-3 at the betting window this season, while the Cyclones are 5-2 straight up and a near-perfect 6-1 at the betting window.
HISTORICAL TRENDS LIKE: Iowa State, which is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 home games and 7-1 at the betting window in its last eight games when facing an opponent with a winning record. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, have failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 games on grass and are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games played in the month of October.
WHO WE LIKE: Iowa State. Why not keep riding the Cyclones at the betting window? The only time that ISU failed to cover this season was as a 5-point home underdog versus Texas in its final game of September. In that game, former starter Jacob Park threw three interceptions and was harassed by an improved Longhorns defense. Still, the Cyclones were in that game until the end, where they eventually lost, 17-7. Since Kyle Kempt has taken over under center, the Cyclones upset Oklahoma 38-31 as a 31-point underdog in Norman, crushed a weak Kansas team 45-0 as a 22.5-point home favorite, and upset Texas Tech 31-13 as a 7-point underdog in Lubbock last week. (As a side note, how did woeful Oregon State let Kempt get away a few years ago?) Iowa State coach Matt Campbell is 19-10-1 against the spread as an underdog at both Toledo and ISU. The Cyclones have thrived as a dog and even though TCU has a playoff berth on the line, there's no reason to think Iowa State can't keep this close today in Ames.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 9 PICK: IOWA STATE CYCLONES +7