Purdue vs. Michigan State Prediction
Is Purdue in danger of a letdown performance following a monumental win last week when it heads to Michigan State this afternoon at Noon ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Noon ET – Spartan Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Michigan State is favored at home, as the Spartans are getting odds of -1 point against Purdue. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 48 points. The public betting for this game currently has 66 percent going on Purdue on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
MSU banged up
Michigan State is coming off a 21-7 loss at home to Michigan last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. The Spartans are now 4-3 on the season, 2-2 in the Big Ten, 2-5 against the spread and 4-3 with the over. MSU has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games.
Last week’s loss to Michigan saw the Spartans held to under 100 total yards of offense and also the loss of leading receiver Felton Davis to an Achilles’ injury. On the year, MSU is averaging just 23.4 points and 351.6 yards per game on offense. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,653 yards and eight touchdowns, but also has seven interceptions. He is dealing with a shoulder injury, and it was reported on Friday that he is not expected to play. With him out, Rocky Lombardi would start. He has thrown just two passes this season. He also is without his top two receivers due to injury. Defensively, MSU is giving up 22.1 points and 355.3 yards per game. Their run defense is allowing just 79.6 yards per game.
Purdue on a roll
The Purdue Boilermakers are on a tear, winning four straight coming into the weekend. Last weekend saw the Boilers hammer Ohio State for a 49-20 win at home. Purdue is now 4-3 on the year, 3-1 in the Big Ten, 5-2 against the spread and 4-3 with the over. Purdue has covered the spread in five straight.
The Boilers are really rolling on offense right now, averaging 35.7 points and 514.3 yards per game. Quarterback David Blough has thrown for 2,073 yards and 13 touchdowns while receiver Rondale Moore has 57 catches for 528 yards and seven touchdowns. D.J. Knox is the leading rusher with 668 yards and eight scores. On defense, Purdue is giving up just 22.7 points and 433.1 yards per game. Their pass defense is allowing nearly 300 yards per game.
College Football Betting Trends
Michigan State has failed to cover in four straight home games and in five of their last six games on grass.
Purdue is has covered the spread in five of its last six conference games and in six straight following a cover.
Normally I would look to Purdue to have a letdown in this game, and I still think that is going to be a possibility. However, MSU has no offensive playmakers. Their top receivers are out, their QB is out and their O-line has been awful most of the season. While Purdue isn’t a defensive juggernaut, the Spartans just won’t be able to make plays. The MSU defense should put up a fight to make this game competitive, but I have a hard time seeing the Spartans winning this game without multiple TD’s on defense and special teams.
College Football Prediction: Purdue +1