Purdue vs. Michigan State Total Pick
Can Michigan State erase an awful offensive showing this weekend when the Spartans play host to Purdue Saturday at Noon ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Noon ET – Spartan Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Michigan State is favored at home, as the Spartans are getting odds of -3.5 points against Purdue. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 51 points. The public betting for this game currently has 51 percent going on Purdue on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Purdue on fire
The Purdue Boilermakers are on a tear, winning four straight coming into the weekend. Last weekend saw the Boilers hammer Ohio State for a 49-20 win at home. Purdue is now 4-3 on the year, 3-1 in the Big Ten, 5-2 against the spread and 4-3 with the over.
The Boilers are really rolling on offense right now, averaging 35.7 points and 514.3 yards per game. Quarterback David Blough has thrown for 2,073 yards and 13 touchdowns while receiver Rondale Moore has 57 catches for 528 yards and seven touchdowns. D.J. Knox is the leading rusher with 668 yards and eight scores. On defense, Purdue is giving up just 22.7 points and 433.1 yards per game. Their pass defense is allowing nearly 300 yards per game.
MSU awful in loss
Michigan State is coming off a 21-7 loss at home to Michigan last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. The Spartans are now 4-3 on the season, 2-2 in the Big Ten, 2-5 against the spread and 4-3 with the over. MSU has hit the under in its last two.
Last week’s loss to Michigan saw the Spartans held to under 100 total yards of offense and also the loss of leading receiver Felton Davis to an Achilles’ injury. On the year, MSU is averaging just 23.4 points and 351.6 yards per game on offense. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,653 yards and eight touchdowns, but also has seven interceptions. He is dealing with a shoulder injury, but expected to play. He also is without his top two receivers due to injury. Defensively, MSU is giving up 22.1 points and 355.3 yards per game. Their run defense is allowing just 79.6 yards per game.
College Football Betting Trends
Purdue has hit the under in seven of its last eight road games and four of its last five conference games.
Michigan State has hit the over in four of its last five home games, but 12-5 with the under in its last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home.
The total is set low for a Purdue team that can really put up offense. However, I would expect the Boilermakers to have an emotional letdown after the big win at home against Ohio State. Don’t look for the Boilers to be as sharp on offense. While MSU could potentially improve on offense against this Purdue defense, the Spartans are plagued with injuries and lack any playmakers right now. Lewerke is also hurt and not able to make the throws he needs to. I expect this to be a somewhat ugly football game with a low score.
College Football Prediction: Purdue/Michigan State Under 51