Indiana vs. Michigan State Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, Michigan State is favored at home, as the Spartans are getting odds of -6.5 points against Indiana. The over/under total is listed at 46 points. Michigan State has won seven of the last eight in this series and the Spartans are 6-2 against the spread in those games. The public is currently putting 74 percent of the wagers on Michigan State at home. Today’s game takes place from Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan and the contest will air live on ABC.
Michigan State is coming off a 30-27 road win over Minnesota to improve to 5-1 on the season and 3-0 in the Big Ten. The Spartans allowed the Gophers to get a backdoor cover with a late surge and now MSU is 4-2 against the spread. MSU has been led by its defense, as the Spartans are giving up just 18.2 points and 263.8 yards per game. On offense, MSU is putting up 23.7 points and 389.2 yards per game. Brian Lewerke has thrown for 1,177 yards and nine touchdowns while rushing for 318 yards and three touchdowns. L.J. Scott has added 408 rushing yards with three touchdowns as well. However, Scott was arrested on Thursday and his status for today’s game is unknown.
Indiana is coming off a 27-20 OT loss at home to Michigan to fall to 3-3 on the season and 0-3 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are 2-3-1 against the spread this year and 1-1 ATS on the road. Indiana has been respectable on defense this year, allowing 25.8 points and 353 yards per game this season. On offense, IU is putting up 28 points and 386.7 yards per contest. Richard Lagow is dealing with an undisclosed injury and may be unable to play. He has 681 passing yards with four touchdowns this year while Peyton Ramsey has thrown for 815 yards and seven touchdowns in his place. Morgan Ellison has run for 426 yards and three touchdowns while Ramsey has 185 yards on the ground. Simmie Cobbs Jr. is the leading receiver with 37 receptions for 409 yards and three touchdowns.
People are sleeping on Michigan State a little bit, probably because they don’t do anything on offense with much flare. The Spartans are hard-nosed team that relies on defense and not turning the ball over to win. While MSU was beaten down at home by Notre Dame, time is showing that the Irish may be one of the best teams in the nation. MSU went to Michigan and took care of business and then was dominating Minnesota on the road before allowing some garbage touchdowns. I think the Spartans will handle themselves at home against this Indiana team just fine. MSU is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven at home and the Spartans should be 5-1 ATS this year if not for taking their foot off the gas.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE -6.5