Iowa State vs. Texas Prediction

Iowa State vs. Texas 10/15/22 Betting Prediction, Odds & Trends

Number twenty-two Texas hosts unranked Iowa State at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Longhorns win big and cover the spread as 16-point home favorites?

Iowa State is 3-3 on the year, with nonconference wins over Iowa and Ohio. The Cyclones have lost their first three conference games of the year. The Cyclones are 2-3-1 ATS on the season. 

Texas is 4-2 on the year with wins over UTSA, West Virginia, and Oklahoma. The Longhorns have lost games against Alabama and Texas Tech. The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS on the year.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

187 Iowa State Cyclones +16 at 188 Texas Longhorns -16; O/U 48.5 

12:00 PM ET Saturday, October 15th, 2022

DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Iowa State vs. Texas Public Betting Information

The public is slightly favoring the Cyclones in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 56% of public bets are on Iowa State +16. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around. 

Iowa State Game Notes

The Cyclones’ best offensive player is wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson. The 6’3” 205-pound senior from Jacksonville, Florida is first in the nation with 57 catches and ninth in the country with 604 receiving yards. He’s posted at least 8 catches for over 80 yards in every game this season and he figures to be a big factor for Iowa State on Saturday.

But in order to stay in the game against Texas, Iowa State will likely have to try to control the ball and keep it away from the Longhorns’ dynamic offense. There’s no better way to do that than running the football. Iowa State’s Jirehl Brock has been a pleasant surprise for the Cyclones this year, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Brock has already run for more yards this year (394) than his first three seasons combined (268). If he can make the most of his touches, Iowa State could cover this game.     

Texas Game Notes               

The hype around Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers appears to have been justified. Ewers started for the Longhorns against Oklahoma last weekend and diced up the Sooners, throwing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. He posted a QBR of 92.3. For the season, Quinn Ewers is completing 68.7% of his passes and is averaging a healthy 9.67 yards per pass attempt. He should be a big factor in this game.

Texas running back Bijan Robinson should be a factor as well. The junior from Tucson, Arizona is considered one of the best backs in the country. He’s shown why in 2022. Robinson is ninth in the nation with 645 rushing yards and third in the country with 10 rushing touchdowns. He’s run for at least 100 yards in 4 straight games and if Texas is going to cover the large spread, he’ll likely have to extend that streak to five.   

Iowa State vs. Texas Betting Trends

Iowa State is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an outright loss.

Iowa State is 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games in October.

The under is 9-3 in Texas’s last 12 games overall.

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between Iowa State and Texas.

Iowa State vs. Texas Betting Prediction

Iowa State might be 3-3, but their three losses were by a combined 11 points. The Cyclones’ defense has stood tall in their past two games holding Kansas to 14 points when they average 36.6 per game and Kansas State to 10 when they average 27.6 per game. Texas is averaging 38.8 points per game, but I think Iowa State’s defense shows up in a big way. The total is pretty low at 48.5 but I think there’s some value in the under. This figures to be one of those grind-it-out early kickoff games, and I think Iowa State keeps it close enough to cover the number. I’ll take the Cyclones and the points.


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