Northwestern vs. MSU Prediction

Michigan State vs. Northwestern, 10/6/18 College Football Predictions

Can No. 20 Michigan State avoid a letdown at home when the Spartans play host to the Northwestern Wildcats at Noon ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

373 Northwestern at 374 Michigan State

Saturday, October 6, 2018

Noon ET – Spartan Stadium


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Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers at, Michigan State is favored at home in this game, as the Spartans are getting odds of -10 points against Northwestern. The over/under total for the game is currently listed at 43.5 points. The public betting for this game currently has 60 percent going on Northwestern on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.

Spartans win two straight

Michigan State is coming off a 31-20 win over Central Michigan at home. The Spartans actually led 31-3, but let the Chippewas rally late. MSU is now 3-1 overall, 1-0 in the Big Ten, 1-3 against the spread and 3-1 with the over.

MSU has a defense that is giving up just 22 points and 328.5 yards per game. Their rushing defense is among the best in the nation, allowing just 40.3 yards per game. On offense, the Spartans are putting up 29.3 points and 381 yards per game. Injuries have been an issue as LJ Scott hasn’t been on the field the past few weeks with a hamstring injury. He is expected to play this afternoon. Scott has just 103 yards on the year. Receiver Cody White has caught 20 passes for 300 yards and two scores, but he suffered a broken hand in last week’s win and is out indefinitely. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is leading the offense with 999 passing yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions.

Northwestern can’t get on track

Northwestern opened its season with a 31-27 win at Purdue, but the Wildcats have lost three straight since, including a 20-17 loss at home to Michigan this weekend when it led 17-0. The Wildcats are now 1-3 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten, 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 with the over/under total.

The Wildcats are giving up 26.8 points and 379 yards per game on defense. Offensively, Northwestern is putting up just 22.3 points and 368.8 yards per game. Their run offense is averaging just 94.8 yards per game. Jeremy Larkin was the leading rusher with 346 yards and five touchdowns, but had to retire due to a spinal injury. With Larkin gone, Northwestern had just 28 rushing yards on 34 carries against Michigan. Clayton Thorson now has to lead the offense. He has thrown for 927 yards and three touchdowns, but also has three interceptions.

College Football Betting Trends

Michigan State

Michigan State is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 home games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a failed cover.


Northwestern has covered the spread in five straight road games and in 20 of its last 26 in the Big Ten.


Northwestern couldn’t run last week against Michigan and the MSU run defense is even stronger. I just don’t see the Wildcats being able to do much of anything on offense, which should allow Michigan State to cover a reasonable spread at home. The Spartans still have some receiving threats and a capable QB and they may get a spark in their run game with Scott returning.

College Football Prediction: Michigan State -10

Related: Northwestern vs. Michigan State Total Prediction

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