Tulsa vs. SMU Total Prediction
Is the total being set too high for No. 24 SMU when it plays host to Tulsa tonight in conference play at 7:30PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
353 Tulsa vs. 354 SMU
Saturday, October 5, 2019
7:30PM ET – Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, SMU is the favorite at home, as the Mustangs are getting odds of -13 points against Tulsa. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 64 points. The public betting currently has 73 percent going on SMU as the home favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
SMU the Cinderella team of 2019
SMU has been the surprise team of the season thus far, as the Mustangs are off to a 5-0 start following a 48-21 win at USF last weekend. The Mustangs also own a win at TCU this year. They are 1-0 in the AAC, 5-0 against the spread and 5-0 with the over.
Southern Methodist has a strong offense that ranks in the top 15 in the nation. SMU is putting up 44.4 points and 510.6 yards per game this season. The defense can’t quite say the same, as they are giving up 26.6 points and 363.4 yards per contest. Shane Buechele is having a strong year under center, throwing for 1,385 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Xavier Jones is leading the ground game with 525 yards and 10 scores while Reggie Roberson Jr. has 30 catches for 510 yards and three touchdowns. Patrick Nelson is leading the defense with 27 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
Tulsa coming off bye
The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes had a bye last week, but picked up a narrow 24-21 win over Wyoming two weeks ago. Tulsa is set to begin AAC play on Saturday with a 2-2 overall record. The Hurricanes are 2-2 against the spread and 4-0 with the under.
Tulsa hasn’t had the offense we’ve seen it have in previous seasons. The Hurricanes are averaging just 21.5 points and 363 yards per game this season. Defensively, Tulsa is allowing 26.2 points and 378.5 yards per game this season. Quarterback Zach Smith has thrown for 1,018 yards and five touchdowns to lead the offense while Shamari Brooks has rushed for 314 yards and four scores. Sam Crawford Jr. is the leading receiver with 22 catches for 329 yards and two touchdowns.
College Football Betting Trends
SMU has hit the under in its last six games in October, but has hit the over in 13 of its last 16 following a cover.
Tulsa has hit the under in nine of its last 11 road games and in 10 of its last 11 against a winning team.
These two have hit the under in three of their last four meetings, including just a 52.5-point total last season. Despite that, I like the over tonight. SMU is at home tonight and should be able to dictate the style of play. While Tulsa has good defensive numbers, they still aren’t a great defense when it comes to stopping a team like SMU. The Mustangs have scored at least 37 points in each game this year. In that same breath, SMU isn’t a great defensive team either, so I would expect Tulsa to be able to find a lot of success on offense tonight. The Golden Hurricanes don’t want a shootout, but I think that is what they are going to get.
College Football Week 6 Prediction: Tulsa/SMU Over 64