San Diego State vs. UNLV Prediction
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, San Diego State is favored on the road, as the Aztecs are getting odds of -10 points against UNLV. The over/under total for the game is listed at 57.5 points. San Diego State has won three straight over UNLV and the Aztecs have covered the spread in the last two meetings. Saturday’s game takes place from Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada and will air live on ESPN2.
San Diego State is off to a 5-0 start overall and 1-0 start in the MWC. The Aztecs are coming off a 34-28 win over Northern Illinois last week, but fell to 3-2 against the spread after failing to cover the 9.5-point spread. San Diego State has been led by its physical defense, as the Aztecs are giving up just 21.2 points and 316.2 yards per game. On offense, SDSU is averaging 30 points and 369.6 yards per game. Rashaad Penny is leading the offense with 823 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while Christian Chapman has thrown for 796 yards and seven touchdowns.
UNLV is 2-2 on the season and 1-0 in the Mountain West after a 41-13 win over San Jose State last week. The Rebels are 3-1 against the spread, having covered in three straight games. UNLV has a defense that is giving up 31.5 points and 488.5 yards per game, but the offense is putting up 36.5 points and 481.5 yards per contest. UNLV has a great rushing attack, as the Rebels average 305.5 yards per game on the ground. Lexington Thomas has run for 571 yards and nine touchdowns to lead the offense while Armani Rogers has thrown for 704 yards and four scores. Devonte Boyd has caught 14 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns.
San Diego is a tough football team and I think the Aztecs will win, but I think this will be a close game. The Aztecs are giving up 130 rushing yards per game, which means the Rebels should be able to stick with their offensive game plan and have success. The problem for UNLV will be if it can consistently score to match what Penny will do to the UNLV defense. I don’t expect a ton of big plays here, just a physical grind on both sides of the ball. However, I like UNLV finding a way to keep this one within 10 points.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: UNLV +10