Auburn vs. Mississippi State Total Pick
The struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs host the Auburn Tigers in a battle of SEC foes at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night. Even with the total sitting in the low 40s, will the under still cash for bettors?
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, October 6, 2018
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Tigers are 3.5-point favorites to beat the Bulldogs. The total, meanwhile, sits at 42 points. As of this writing, 69% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Tigers.
Auburn redshirt junior QB Jarrett Stidham completed 19-of-33 passes for 245 yards with two touchdowns in a 24-13 win over Southern Mississippi. Stidham got off to another slow start, and was fortunate that his touchdown pass wasn't picked but landed in the arms of talented freshman Seth Williams for a 48-yard score. He also connected on a one-yard strike to Chandler Cox to extend the 21-6 in the third. Between those passes, Stidham wasn't atrocious, but he has not looked like a first-round prospect since the victory over Washington on opening weekend. He'll take on the Bulldogs of Mississippi State next Saturday.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State senior QB Nick Fitzgerald completed just 11-of-26 passes for 98 yards and ran for just 32 yards on 20 carries in a 13-6 loss to Florida on Saturday. You can choose to give credit to the Florida and Mississippi State defenses, or you can choose to admit that these are bad offensive football teams. The answer is probably somewhere in between. In an ugly game, Fitzgerald struggled to get the ball downfield, and his accuracy was once again a problem in a loss for the Bulldogs. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound quarterback has completed over 50 percent of his passes just once this season, and he couldn't compensate with the run game. Another tough test comes next Saturday against Auburn.
The over is 4-0 in the Tigers’ last four road games.
The under is 4-0 in the Bulldogs’ last four conference games.
The under is 8-1 in the Tigers’ last nine games, is 5-1 in their last six games coming off a win and is 4-0 in the Bulldogs’ last four games following a loss. With both quarterbacks struggling but both defenses remaining stout, the under is the play here, despite the total sitting in the low 40s. It’ll be close but I see a 23-17, 24-16 final. The under is also a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Starkville and 5-1 in the last six meetings overall.
College Football Prediction: Auburn/Mississippi State under 42