Northwestern vs. Michigan St. Total Pick

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans, 10/3/18 Predictions

Will No. 20 Michigan State have a physical contest at home when it plays host to Northwestern on Saturday at Noon ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

373 Northwestern at 374 Michigan State

Saturday, October 6, 2018

Noon ET – Spartan Stadium


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Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers at, Michigan State is favored at home in this game, as the Spartans are getting odds of -11 points against Northwestern. The over/under total for the game is currently listed at 44.5 points. The public betting for this game currently has 66 percent going on Northwestern on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.

Northwestern drops third straight

Northwestern opened its season with a 31-27 win at Purdue, but the Wildcats have lost three straight since, including a 20-17 loss at home to Michigan this weekend when it led 17-0. The Wildcats are now 1-3 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten, 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 with the over/under total.

The Wildcats are giving up 26.8 points and 379 yards per game on defense. Offensively, Northwestern is putting up just 22.3 points and 368.8 yards per game. Their run offense is averaging just 94.8 yards per game. Jeremy Larkin was the leading rusher with 346 yards and five touchdowns, but had to retire due to a spinal injury. With Larkin gone, Northwestern had just 28 rushing yards on 34 carries against Michigan. Clayton Thorson now has to lead the offense. He has thrown for 927 yards and three touchdowns, but also has three interceptions.

Spartans unbeaten at home

Michigan State is coming off a 31-20 win over Central Michigan at home. The Spartans actually led 31-3, but let the Chippewas rally late. MSU is now 3-1 overall, 1-0 in the Big Ten, 1-3 against the spread and 3-1 with the over.

MSU has a defense that is giving up just 22 points and 328.5 yards per game. Their rushing defense is among the best in the nation, allowing just 40.3 yards per game. On offense, the Spartans are putting up 29.3 points and 381 yards per game. Injuries have been an issue as LJ Scott hasn’t been on the field the past few weeks with a hamstring injury. He is expected to play on Saturday. Scott has just 103 yards on the year. Receiver Cody White has caught 20 passes for 300 yards and two scores, but he suffered a broken hand in last week’s win and is out indefinitely. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is leading the offense with 999 passing yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions.

College Football Betting Trends


Northwestern is 5-0-1 with the over in its last six road games, but 31-15 with the under in its last 46 against a winning team.

Michigan State

Michigan State has hit the over in five of its last seven games on grass and in four of its last five home games.


I could see this being another ugly game for Northwestern. The Wildcats really couldn’t move the ball against Michigan and I see similar problems on the road against Michigan State. The Wildcats still have a respectable defense and MSU is still trying to find its identity on offense. I don’t expect Scott to be on fire in his first game back and the MSU passing game will feel the effects of not having White.

College Football Prediction: Northwestern/Michigan State Under 44.5

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