Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Prediction

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State 10/1/22 Betting Odds, Prediction & Trends

Number 25 Kansas State hosts conference opponent Texas Tech at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Wildcats cover the 8.5-point spread as home favorites and remain unbeaten in conference play?

Texas Tech is 3-1 on the season, with wins over Murray State, Houston, and Texas. They lost on the road at North Carolina State 27-14 in week 3. The Red Raiders are 2-2 ATS on the season. 

Kansas State is 3-1 with wins over South Dakota, Missouri, and Oklahoma already on the season. They lost to Tulane 17-10 in week 3. The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS on the year.

Game Matchup and Betting Odds

177 Texas Tech Red Raiders +8.5 at 178 Kansas State Wildcats -8.5; O/U 57

12:00 PM ET Saturday, October 1st, 2022

Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Public Betting Information

The public is slightly favoring the Wildcats in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 51% of public bets are on Kansas State -8.5. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around. 

Texas Tech Game Notes

The Red Raiders had a monstrous program win over Texas in overtime last weekend 37-34. In that game, quarterback Donovan Smith threw for 331 yards and 2 touchdowns. He didn’t throw an interception, but only averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt. In Texas Tech’s previous two games, Smith’s touchdown to interception ratio was a mediocre 3-5 and his yards per pass attempt was right at 6.0. This is relevant because Kansas State’s defense already has 7 interceptions on the season. The Wildcats are tied for 9th in the FBS in average turnover margin per game (+1.7) while Texas Tech ranks tied for 85th in the country (-0.7) I think turnovers will be the story of this game and if Donovan Smith can’t protect the football, Texas Tech will be hard-pressed to cover the spread. 

Kansas State Game Notes

The Wildcats are coming off of a big win of their own. They beat Oklahoma last weekend 41-34 at night on the road. Kansas State quarterback Adrian Martinez was the star of that contest, running for 148 yards and 4 touchdowns. He added 234 passing yards and a passing touchdown to top it all off. Martinez has always been dangerous as a runner. In his first 4 collegiate seasons in Nebraska, Martinez ran for at least 500 and 7 touchdowns each year. Kansas State offensive coordinator and former mobile Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein drew up some designed runs for Martinez last weekend, and I think he’ll call several more against a Texas Tech defense that’s given up at least 27 points to every FBS team they’ve faced.     

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Betting Trends

Texas Tech is 14-13 straight up since the beginning of 2020.

Kansas State is 15-12 straight up since the beginning of 2020.

57% of the handle is on Texas Tech +8.5.

Texas Tech is 9-7-1 ATS dating back to the beginning of last year. 

Kansas State is 10-6-1 ATS dating back to the beginning of last season.

Texas Tech is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an outright win.

Texas Tech is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Kansas State.

Kansas State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing over 280 passing yards in their previous game.

The under is 5-1 in Kansas State’s last 6 games following an outright win.

Texas Tech vs. Kansas State Betting Prediction

With the win over Oklahoma on Saturday, Kansas State just secured the inside track to the Big 12 Championship Game. In order to get there, I think they’ll need to have one conference loss or fewer. They’re in a good spot this Saturday with an early game at home against a team coming off of a massive home win. Young teams and inexperienced coaches often have trouble handling success. Texas Tech’s coach Joey McGuire will be manning the sidelines for only his 5th career game as a collegiate head coach. Kansas State’s head coach Chris Klieman on the other hand won 4 FCS national championships as the head coach of North Dakota State from 2014-2018. I think that the coaching experience will matter on Saturday and Kansas State should cruise to a double-digit win.  


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