Mississippi State vs. Florida Spread Pick

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators, 9/29/18 Week 5 Predictions

The Mississippi State Bulldogs suffered their first loss of the season last week. Will they rebound with a victory over their former coach Dan Mullen and his Florida Gators at 6:00 p.m. ET tonight?

Game Snapshot

193 Florida Gators at 194 Mississippi State Bulldogs

6:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, September 29, 2018

Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Bulldogs are 7-point favorites to beat the Gators. The total, meanwhile, sits at 49 points. As of this writing, 56% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Gators.

Florida Gators

Florida redshirt sophomore QB Feleipe' Franks completed 9-of-18 passes for 172 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday's 47-21 win over Tennessee. The Florida Gators just let Tennessee beat themselves on Saturday; the Volunteers finished with six turnovers. Regardless of how bad Tennessee looked tonight, Franks played well as he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt, threw for three touchdowns, and also ran for a score. Franks (6'6/240) hasn't been completing passes consistently (52.6%) but the Gators have been creating big plays which has helped Franks passing numbers. Florida have a tough game on the road against Mississippi State next Saturday.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline lists Mississippi State senior QB Nick Fitzgerald as a player whose stock is sliding after his performance in Week 4. Fitzgerald was awful against Kentucky on Saturday, completing just 16-of-32 passes without a touchdown for 145 yards with a pick. That leads to a QBR rating of 26.1, which not what you're looking for. As Pauline bluntly -- but accurately -- puts it: "The bottom line is that Fitzgerald has shown little improvement as a passer since his sophomore season and gives little reason to believe there will be much progress in the future." He may need to change positions if he's going to play in the NFL.

Betting Trends

Florida

The Gators have covered the spread in four of their last five games played in September but are just 1-4 against the number in their last five road games.

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are 23-5 against the spread in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record and are 8-2 against the number in their last 10 home games.

Prediction

Florida thumped Tennessee last week but the Vols are inexperienced and will struggle all season. In fact, Tennessee turned the ball over six times in that game, perhaps painting the picture that the Gators are better than what they are. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is coming off a bad loss to Kentucky, creating a perfect buy-back opportunity for bettors. The Gators should be walking into a buzzsaw Saturday night, especially with the Bulldogs facing their former coach.

 

College Football Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs -7

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