CMU vs. MSU Prediction
Is No. 21 Michigan State giving up too many points to an in-state foe it has lost to multiple times, Central Michigan, when the two meet today at Noon ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Noon ET – Spartan Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, Michigan State is favored at home, as the Spartans are getting odds of -29.5 points against Central Michigan. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 47.5 points. The public betting for this game currently has 64 percent going on Central Michigan on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our College Football Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Spartans returns home
After a bye week, MSU went to Indiana last weekend and grinded out a 35-21 victory over the Hoosiers. They are 2-1 on the season, 1-2 against the spread and 2-1 with the over. This is the first home game for MSU since the season opener nearly a month ago.
Michigan State has potential on offense, but is posting just 28.7 points and 393 yards per game thus far. Brian Lewerke has thrown for 814 yards and five touchdowns with four interceptions to lead the offense. LJ Scott is the team’s stud back but he has just 103 yards on 30 carries this year and is dealing with a hamstring injury that could keep him out of this game. As of Friday, Scott was listed as probable to play. Defensively, MSU is giving up just 22.7 points and 356.3 yards per game. Their run defense is limiting opponents to just 32.7 yards per game.
CMU a mess on offense
Central Michigan is coming off its first win, a 17-5 decision over Maine. The Chippewas are just 1-3 on the season, but are 3-1 against the spread. They have hit the under in three straight to move to 3-1 with the under on the season. As a program, Central Michigan is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games.
For the year, CMU is averaging just 15 points and 258.5 yards per game. Their quarterback play has been very suspect. Tony Poljan started the season but was pulled for lack of production. Tommy Lazzaro got the start last week and he is 20 of 38 for 210 yards and two touchdowns on the season. The CMU run game is the strength, but Jonathan Ward is the leading rusher with just 156 yards. Defensively, CMU has been respectable, as the Chippewas are allowing 23.8 points and 334.3 yards per game, including just 140 passing yards per game.
College Football Betting Trends
MSU is 9-3 against the spread in its last 12 home games, but just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.
CMU has covered the spread in six of its last seven road games, but is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games.
I don’t see Central Michigan able to move the ball on offense much. They have peaked at 20 points this year, and that included a defensive touchdown against Kentucky. The Chips will have to rely heavily on defense if it hopes to cover. Michigan State isn’t a team that tends to blow out opponents. Their games this year have all been close, including a 7-point win at home against Utah State. Still, I think the Spartans find their offense this week after a promising showing last week against Indiana. MSU should be able to control the line of scrimmage and get its run game going, especially if Scott is going to be suiting up. I don’t love it, but I will take MSU minus the points.
College Football Prediction: Michigan State -29.5