Florida vs. Mississippi State Total Pick

Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs, 9/27/18 Predictions & Odds

The Florida Gators and Mississippi State Bulldogs have a few things in common. Not only has Dan Mullen now coached both programs, the two teams also have been upset by Kentucky this year. The Gators and Bulldogs will now meet at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday night in what could be a low-scoring game.

Game Snapshot

193 Florida Gators at 194 Mississippi State Bulldogs

6:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, September 29, 2018

Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Bulldogs are 7.5-point favorites to beat the Gators. The total, meanwhile, sits at 51 points. As of this writing, 62% of the public betting tickets wagered on this matchup are on the Gators.

Florida Gators

Former Florida sophomore RB Adarius Lemons was arrested for domestic battery by strangulation. The report, which has two eye-witnesses, alleges a fight between Lemons and his longtime girlfriend, where Lemons broke her phone, pushed her against a wall breaking her toenail, and choked her. Lemons had a warrant served on Monday and was arrested on Tuesday morning. This arrest will make it nearly impossible for Lemons to find a new home at a D1 university, if he's even allowed to play, but that should be the last of his worries given the magnitude of the report. Lemons (6'0/195) made national headlines earlier this month after announcing his transfer just minutes after the Gators loss to Kentucky.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Mississippi State redshirt senior QB Nick Fitzgerald completed 16-of-32 passes for 145 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Saturday's 28-7 loss at Kentucky and he rushed for one score. The No. 14 Bulldogs hit the road for Lexington and were unable to deal the Wildcats their first loss of the season. Kentucky's defense was surprisingly stout, limiting Mississippi State to just the one Fitzgerald rushing score. It was an especially surprising result considering Mississippi State entered the game averaging 50.0 points per game. The Bulldogs will look to bounce back next Saturday at home against old coach Dan Mullen and the Florida Gators.

Betting Trends

Florida

The over is 4-1 in the Gators’ last five road games.

Mississippi State

The under is 5-1 in the Bulldogs’ last six games overall.

Prediction

The Gators used turnovers and their running game to beat Tennessee last week but after rushing for 201 yards and three touchdowns against the Vols, there will be fewer running lanes against Mississippi State on Saturday night. And while Feleipe’ Franks played well in that win over Tennessee, he’s still only completing 52.6% of his passes. I don’t trust Florida to contribute enough points to help push the score over the total. Given the emotions that will be wrapped into this game with Mullen returning to Starkville, I see this being a tight, low-scoring game throughout.

 

College Football Prediction: Florida/Mississippi State under 51

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