Connecticut vs. UCF Prediction
After suffering its first regular-season loss in years, will No. 22 UCF bounce back this weekend when the Knights host Connecticut on Saturday at 7PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
117 Connecticut vs. 118 Central Florida
Saturday, September 28, 2019
7PM ET – Spectrum Stadium
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Public Betting Trends
According to the latest oddsmakers, Central Florida is the overwhelming favorite at home, as the Knights are getting odds of -43 points against UConn. The over/under total for the game is listed at 64.5 points. The public betting currently has 70 percent going on UCF as the heavy home favorite. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NCAAF Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Huskies get thrashed
Connecticut is coming off an embarrassing 38-3 loss at Indiana last weekend for a second consecutive loss. The Huskies are 1-2 on the season, 1-2 against the spread and 3-0 with the under this year.
UConn is struggling offensively this year, as the Huskies are averaging just 16.7 points and 274 yards per game. Defensively, Connecticut is allowing 30 points and 324 yards per game. Mike Beaudry has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury and the QB is questionable to play this week. Jack Zergiotis has thrown for 365 yards and three interceptions in his place. Kevin Mensah is leading the ground attack with 205 yards and two touchdowns while Cameron Ross is the leading rusher with 115 yards on seven catches.
UCF upset by Pitt
UCF overcame a 21-point deficit last week to lead at Pitt, only to see the Panthers beat them in the closing seconds of the game, 35-34. It was the first regular-season loss for UCF since 2016. The Knights are 3-1 on the season, 3-1 against the spread and 2-2 with the over/under total.
Central Florida still has impressive numbers on both sides of the ball. The offense is putting up 47.3 points and 559 yards per game while the defense is giving up just 19 points and 299.5 yards per game. Dillon Gabriel is leading the team with 1,057 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. Gabriel Davis is the leading receiver with 20 catches for 380 yards, while Greg McCrae is the leading rusher with 298 yards and three touchdowns.
College Football Betting Trends
The Huskies are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games on grass and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine against a winning team.
The Knights are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against a losing team.
After a loss, one would expect UCF to be pretty motivated to dominate an opponent at home the following week. That’s certainly a realistic scenario, but that spread is very high. UCF hasn’t beaten Connecticut by 40 points in the last five meetings, even losing two of them. The last meeting at UCF was in 2017 and the Huskies covered a 39-point spread. I realize UConn is awful and UCF is going to look to take out its frustrations on them, but covering a spread like this takes a lot. A bad bounce here or there can keep that from happening. The loss last week could also linger for the Knights, or take away a little bit of the mystique they have carried against opponents in recent years.
College Football Week 5 Prediction: Connecticut +43